US Dollar Price Forecast: USD Descending Triangle for FOMC

US Dollar Price Forecast:

USD Support Bounce Meets FOMC

It’s been a riveting year already in a US Dollar and there’s still a small some-more than a full entertain to go before we can all put 2020 behind us. Along a approach will be a highly-contentious Presidential Election as a tellurian pestilence rages in a background; so it’s expected that sensitivity is here to stay for a bit.

In a US Dollar, this year’s theatrics have led to a net-bearish outlay, nonetheless that didn’t occur in a true line as a initial pierce when a coronavirus began to get priced-in was an assertive hitch of strength. That strength lasted for about a initial dual weeks of March, during that indicate a USD tested a 103.00 turn in DXY and shortly topsy-turvy off of those highs.

The subsequent 6 months would mostly be filled with pain for USD-bulls as a banking was mired in a array of downtrends. This eventually pennyless down to a outrageous area on a draft that started to come into play in late-August. This feeder support section offering a integrate of opposite Fibonacci retracements along with a trendline that can be found by joining 2011 and 2014 pitch lows.

That support has given helped to reason a lows, and a first-half of Sep has even seen an initial pull adult to higher-highs and presumably even higher-lows.

US Dollar Monthly Price Chart

US Dollar Monthly Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; USD, DXY on Tradingview

That initial intrusion on support shoed around a Sep open, and that led into a clever burst-higher as a USD bucked adult to a uninformed short-term higher-high. But, over a past week, that bullish pierce has mostly depressed prosaic and cost movement in a Greenback has tip-toed down to a section of increasingly informed support using from around 92.70-92.80 on DXY.

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US Dollar Four-Hour Price Chart

US Dollar Four Hour Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; USD, DXY on Tradingview

US Dollar: Short-Term Descending Triangle, Long-Term Support

At this point, with a Sep FOMC rate preference appearing only forward on a mercantile calendar, a US banking has built into a bearish arrangement as shown in a forward triangle. The forward triangle is noted by plane support along with a array of lower-highs, highlighting a intensity for unchanging offered vigour as shown by those reduce highs to, eventually, concede for a crack of plane support.

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But in this unfolding around a USD, a longer-term matter of that large design support looked during progressing stays an issue. So if a USD does flog off a bearish pierce around FOMC or in a near-term, a large doubt is either sellers can pull next 92.00 on DXY to qualification a uninformed low: And if not, afterwards a backdrop for bullish annulment intensity might sojourn as a doorway starts to tighten on Q3 and courtesy shifts to a final entertain of this year.

US Dollar Two Hour Price Chart

US Dollar Two Hour Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; USD, DXY on Tradingview

— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX