Chart combined with TradingView
Brexit Outlook and Sterling (GBP/USD) Price, Analysis and Chart:
- EU/UK stand-off stays as a time ticks.
- Coronavirus hampers talks.
The latest turn of EU-UK trade talks has finished with accurately a same finish as a final few rounds, with both sides observant that they are penetrating and means to strike a understanding if a other side shifts from their confirmed position. As conjunction side is peaceful to mangle their red lines – and keeps repeating that this is a box – afterwards small can be approaching from a talks and Sterling will sojourn rangebound until a time finally runs down during a finish of a year. The usually approach a understanding can be concluded is if possibly UK PM Boris Johnson or European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meddle and confirm that adequate is adequate and give their negotiating teams a coherence indispensable to coop a deal. This would need red lines to be damaged and both sides might feel that a no understanding is some-more savoury than a compromised agreement and a concomitant domestic storm.
This week’s talks were serve hampered when one of a EU negotiating group tested certain for Covid-19 on Thursday, forcing arch adjudicator Michel Barnier to self-isolate and check talks further.
Sterling continues to price-in a some-more than 50/50 possibility of a understanding being concluded and therefore is exposed to a no-deal outcome. Against a US dollar, Sterling now trades around 1.3250 and is exposed to a pointy tumble behind to a mid-to-high 1.20s if no understanding is reached. Positioning in Sterling around a CoT news shows veteran traders augmenting their brief positions to a top turn given August. This does leave Sterling exposed to a snap aloft if a understanding is agreed.
GBP/USD Daily Price Chart (December 2019 – Nov 20, 2020)
IG customer perspective data show35.80% of traders are net-long with a ratio of traders brief to prolonged during 1.79 to 1. We typically take a contrarian perspective to throng sentiment, and a fact traders are net-short suggests GBP/USD prices might continue to rise.Positioning is reduction net-short than yesterday though some-more net-short from final week. The multiple of stream perspective and new changes gives us a serve mixed GBP/USD trade bias.
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What is your perspective on Sterling – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know around a form during a finish of this square or we can hit a author around Twitter @nickcawley1.