- Oil pricereverses some-more than 13% off a monthly lows– rally targets Aug open
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Oil prices are attempting to snap a two-week losing strain after branch neatly from monthly support final week. The allege might have serve to go though keeps cost within a proportions of a broader downtrend. These are a updated targets and cancellation levels that matter on a oil weekly cost draft (WTI). Review my latestWeekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth relapse of this US Dollar trade setup and more.
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Oil Price Chart – WTI Weekly
Notes: In my final Oil PriceOutlook we remarkable that, “The oil cost sell-off is contrast support targets here during 51.03/67,” while warning to, “be on a surveillance for probable downside exhaustion.” WTI quickly purebred a low during 50.51 before branch neatly aloft with a allege now coming a Aug open during 57.89. Note that weekly movement has continued to operation into a peak of this converging pattern- demeanour to a mangle for guidance.
Initial insurgency is eye during a Apr trendline with pivotal insurgency solid during 60.06/47 – a crack / tighten above this threshold would be indispensable to advise a incomparable dermatitis is underway. Initial support now rests with a low-week tighten during 54.23 with a mangle / tighten next a 61.8% retracement during 51.60 indispensable to symbol resumption of a broader downtrend, targeting 48.24.
For a finish relapse of Michael’s trade strategy, examination his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy
Bottom line: Oil prices incited support final week with a new cost dermatitis now coming initial insurgency targets. From a trade standpoint, demeanour to revoke long-exposure / lift protecting stops on a convene towards a monthly open / trendline resistance. Ultimately, we’re treating this as a operation for now- don’t follow this only yet. I’ll tell an updated Crude Oil Price Outlook once we get serve clarity in near-term cost action.
Crude Oil Trader Sentiment
- A outline of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Oil – a ratio stands during +1.64 (62.1% of traders are long) – bearish reading
- Traders have remained net-long given July 12th; cost has changed 3.1% reduce given then
- Long positions are 18.9% reduce than yesterday and 11.8% reduce from final week
- Short positions are 11.4% reduce than yesterday and 6.0% reduce from final week
- We typically take a contrarian perspective to throng sentiment, and a fact traders are net-long suggests crude oil prices might continue to fall. Yet traders are reduction net-long than yesterday and compared with final week. Recent changes in view advise that a stream Oil – US Crude cost trend might shortly retreat aloft notwithstanding a fact traders sojourn net-long.
See how shifts in Crude Oil retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn some-more about sentiment!
Previous Weekly Technical Charts
- Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)
- US Dollar (DXY)
- Gold (XAU/USD)
- Crude Oil (WTI)
- Aussie (AUD/USD)
- Silver (XAG/USD)
— Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX
Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex