Kiwi Weekly Price Outlook: New Zealand Dollar Grinds during Support

In this array we scale-back and demeanour during a broader technical design to benefit a bit some-more viewpoint on where we are in trend. The New Zealand Dollar has plummeted some-more than 6% from a yearly highs opposite a US Dollar with cost now contrast parallel support around a 65-handle. These are a updated targets and cancellation levels that matter on a NZD/USD weekly cost draft streamer into a start of Jun trade. Review my latest week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth relapse of this setup and more.

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NZD/USD Weekly Price Chart

NZD/USD Price Chart - Kiwi Weekly - New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar

Notes: In my final New Zealand Dollar Weekly Price Outlook we remarkable that Kiwi had, “broken next both up-trend support and a multi-month operation we’ve been tracking and leaves a risk weighted to a downside in NZD/USD.” One month after and cost is down some-more than 2% with Kiwi induction uninformed yearly lows final week.

The evident concentration is on a 2018 low-week tighten during 6507– a weekly tighten next this threshold is indispensable to keep a short-bias viable targeting a 2018 low during 6424 and some-more a some-more poignant support connection during 6343/47. Initial insurgency stands during a Jan pitch lows during 6586 with broader bearish cancellation now lowered to a yearly open during 6705.

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Bottom line: Failure to symbol a weekly tighten next 6507 would leave a evident short-bias exposed streamer into a start of Jun trade. From a trade standpoint a good mark to revoke short-exposure / reduce protecting stops. Be on a surveillance for downside depletion near-term. Ultimately a incomparable liberation should infer visual and might offer some-more auspicious entries.I’ll tell an updated NZD/USD Price Outlook once we get serve clarity in near-term cost action.

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NZD/USD Trader Sentiment

NZD/USD Trader Sentiment - Kiwi Positioning - New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar Price Chart

  • A outline of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long NZD/USD – a ratio stands during +3.35 (77.0% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Traders have remained net-long given April 2nd; cost has changed 5.6% reduce given then
  • Long positions are 3.7% aloft than yesterday and 0.4% aloft from final week
  • Short positions are 22.9% reduce than yesterday and 4.6% aloft from final week
  • We typically take a contrarian perspective to throng sentiment, and a fact traders are net-long suggests NZD/USD prices might continue to fall. Traders are serve net-long than yesterday final week, and a multiple of stream positioning and new changes gives us a stronger NZD/USD-bearish contrarian trade bias from a view standpoint.

See how shifts in NZD/USD sell positioning are impacting trend- Learn some-more about sentiment!

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

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— Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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