EUR/USD Price Outlook: Euro Fails during 1.15

Euro is melancholy a four-day winning strain opposite a US Dollar with a new cost convene unwell during a 1.15-handle currently in New York. The evident hazard is reduce near-term, though a broader opinion stays constructive and we’re looking for a pullback to offer some-more auspicious opportunities. These are a updated targets and cancellation levels that matter on a EUR/USD charts. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth relapse of this setup and more.

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EUR/USD Daily Price Chart

EUR/USD Price Chart - Euro vs US Dollar Daily

Technical Outlook: In my latest EUR/USD Technical Price Outlook we remarkable that a pullback was, ‘approaching monthly up-trend support only reduce and IF cost is streamer higher, Euro would need to reason above slope support.” A brief army subsequent pitchfork support saw a exam of a Dec low-day tighten during 1.1303 before reversing neatly on Jan 25th with a allege now contrast a monthly high-day tighten during 1.15. A tighten above this threshold is indispensable to fuel a subsequent leg aloft targeting a high-close during 1.1542 corroborated by a 200-day relocating normal and a 61.8% retracement of a 2018 operation during 1.1586.

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EUR/USD 120min Price Chart

EUR/USD Price Chart - Euro vs US Dollar 120min

Notes: A closer demeanour during cost movement uncover EUR/USD trade within a proportions of an descending channel arrangement fluctuating off a monthly lows with cost Euro branch only pips from slope insurgency today. Initial support now rests behind during monthly / yearly open during 1.1449/50 corroborated closely by a reduce together – a mangle there would advise a incomparable improvement is underway with such a unfolding exposing a weekly open during a 1.14-handle (near-term bullish invalidation). Resistance stays during 1.15 with a crack above a weekly range-highs targeting a highlighted insurgency connection during 1.1542.

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Bottom line: The evident risk is reduce in cost though IF Euro is indeed streamer higher, waste should be singular to a 1.14-handle. From a trade standpoint, I’m looking for downside depletion on a pierce reduce to offer some-more auspicious long-entries while above 1.1350 targeting a yearly high-close. Review my EUR/USD Weekly Technical Outlook for a demeanour during a longer-term trade levels streamer into a tighten of a month.

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EUR/USD Trader Sentiment

EUR/USD Trader Sentiment

  • A outline of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short EUR/USD – a ratio stands during -1.2 (45.5% of traders are long) – bullishreading
  • Long positions are13.2% reduce than yesterday and 35.7% reduce from final week
  • Short positions are 7.6% aloft than yesterday and 47.5% aloft from final week
  • We typically take a contrarian perspective to throng sentiment, and a fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices might continue to rise. Traders are serve net-short than yesterday final week, and a multiple of stream positioning and new changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bullish contrarian trade bias from a view standpoint.

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Relevant EUR/USD Data Releases

EUR/USD Economic Calendar

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– Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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