Dow, S&P 500 Hasten Rally as a USD Snaps

Dow, SP 500, US Dollar Talking Points

  • A bit of ease has shown this week as a risk-on trade has shown for some-more than a day.
  • While a SP 500 is adult some-more than 18% from this week’s lows – we’re still some-more than 23% divided from a highs that were set only final month.
  • Going along with this revivial of strength in US equities is a bearish pierce in a US Dollar, hastening after this morning’s comments from FOMC Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin.

Stock Rally Continues

A bit of wish is holding on as a risk trade has come behind to life this week. Despite another nasty open to a week a SP 500 has hold on to Tuesday’s gains and even combined some some-more on Wednesday and, so distant in Thursday trade. This happens even as US jobless claims printed in a intolerable manner, with 3.2 million copy opposite a before week’s 281k.

But – as with all else in financial markets, context is important; and this shockingly disastrous imitation was during slightest rather equivalent when Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin remarkable that it wasn’t applicable given all else that a Fed and now Congress have finished in a bid of addressing a ongoing issues from a coronavirus-fueled slowdown.

So, during this point, given that there’s been a few days’ value of gains strung together – a vast doubt is possibly a low has nonetheless been put in or possibly we’re during a proxy corner in a longer-term or bigger design sell-off. And there’s unequivocally ground on possibly side of a scenario: From a angle of fear, we expected haven’t nonetheless seen a misfortune from a novel coronavirus and many estimates are suggesting that a ‘peak’ is during slightest weeks away. On a other, both a Fed and Congress have come together with mercantile impulse a likes of that a universe has never seen.

What can be suitable for a merchant or financier during this indicate is to brand areas of strength or guarantee for possibly scenario. As looked during in Tuesday and again in today’s webinar, the Nasdaq 100 has hold adult respectably, all factors considered. My colleague, Peter Hanks, discussed this a small progressing today. The Dow, meanwhile, has been strike generally tough as a vital basic of a index (Boeing) is battling mixed disastrous drivers.

At this point, a Dow has started to exam insurgency during an engaging symbol on a chart. The cost of 22,420 is a 50% pen from a 2016-2020 vital move; and this is from a same Fibonacci investigate from that a 78.6% retracement helped to set a low after another heartless Sunday open this week.

Dow Jones Industrial Average Two-Hour Price Chart

Dow Jones Two Hour Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; Dow Jones on Tradingview

SP 500 Jumps As Much as 18% From a Lows

It’s been a vast week in a SP 500 with prices adult some-more than 18% from this week’s lows; that is, in and of itself, an strange amount. But – this still isn’t even 38.2% of that before sell-off, definition there might be some-more room left to run, generally if a risk-on trade takes over again after a arsenal of impulse that’s been launched.

Building Confidence in Trading
Building Confidence in Trading

A identical bullish short-term structure has shown in a SP 500, with a bit of governance constructed by a same 2016-2020 vital move. The 76.4% retracement helped to symbol a low, a 61.8% retracement came in as support yesterday; and a 50% pen sits only forward as a subsequent intensity symbol of resistance, display around a 2600 level.

SP 500 Four-Hour Price Chart

SPX ES SPY Four Hour Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; SPX500 on Tradingview

US Dollar Snaps Back as Fed, Treasury Address Risk Aversion Head-On

In a associated move, a US Dollar has put in a vast pullback, going along with a revivial of strength in US equities. In a pierce expected associated to brute-force risk hatred in mid-March, a Greenback gained as most as 8.8%, non-levered, as investors rushed for a reserve of a USD.

As looked during yesterday, a amiable pullback had shown in a early-portion of this week. That pullback incited deeper with charge currently as both Jerome Powell and Steven Mnuchin common some understanding explanation progressing this morning. Powell pronounced that a Fed’s appropriation is singular by what a Treasury would concede and, a Treasury, run by Steven Mnuchin, have shown no signs of nonetheless vouchsafing adult in a bid of stemming this sell-off head-on.

This was plenty ground for a deeper annulment and a US Dollar has been spiraling reduce ever since. For a past 4 hours, as of this writing, a US Dollar has begun to dig-in during a pivotal longer-term support level. The cost of 99.34 is a 14.4% Fibonacci retracement of a 2011-2017 vital move.

US Dollar Monthly Price Chart

USD US Dollar Monthly Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; USD on Tradingview

On a shorter-term basis, prices were throwing support during a 23.6% retracement yesterday; though that has given been taken out and USD cost movement has even cut subsequent a 38.2% pen of a new bullish move. This leaves a 50% pen sneaking underneath stream cost movement as that subsequent symbol of intensity support, plotted around a 98.86 level.

US Dollar Four-Hour Price Chart

US Dollar Four-Hour Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; USD on Tradingview

— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX