Nasdaq 100 Recovering? Biden-Trump Election Betting Spread Widens

2020 Election, Nasdaq Analysis, Biden-Trump Election Odds – Talking Points

  • Biden-Trump choosing betting averages continue to dilate forward of initial presidential debate
  • Technology bonds might arise again with direct for digital services as Covid-19 cases grow
  • Nasdaq index recuperation might be in a works, liberation might confront attrition during 11263.6

42 DAYS UNTIL THE US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

With reduction than a week until a initial US presidential debate, former Vice President and Democratic hopeful Joe Biden has successfully confirmed a gentle lead over President Donald Trump. RealClearPolitics’ betting averages for a choosing uncover a widest widespread between a dual possibilities given mid-August as US coronavirus cases surge.

2020 US Election Polls

Chart display Biden-Trump Spread

Source: RealClearPolitics

The US – after initial imagining in China, afterwards swelling to Europe and eventually North America – has been a viral hotbed of Covid-19. Confirmed cases of a coronavirus began to neatly arise in June. Perhaps not wholly by coincidence, polling information from FiveThirtyEight shows that around a same time, Trump’s capitulation rating for how he rubbed a coronavirus pestilence began to neatly decline.

2020 Poll on Trump

Chart display Trump Approval

Source: FiveThirtyEight

Consequently, if cases continue to grow – and a awaiting of re-imposed or extended internal lockdown orders increases – it could serve hole Mr. Trump’s recognition and by default lift Biden’s higher. These trends are quite vicious to watch given a arriving presidential discuss on Sep 29. The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) has expelled what topics will be discussed.

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How to Use IG Client Sentiment in Your Trading

US Coronavirus Cases Surge – Tech Stocks to Recover?

Following a fall in equity markets in Mar by a virus-induced selloff, tech bonds rallied and outperformed other sectors. The expected matter was a reward put on digital services after shelter-in-place orders singular a series of outside activities. This might assistance explain because subscriptions for streaming services surged along with online selling activity and helped lift bonds like Amazon and Netflix higher.

If a spike in Covid-19 infections continues to persist, this energetic might once again play out and assistance lift tech bonds higher. While equity markets did recently lift back, indices like a SP 500 and tech-leaning Nasdaq seem to uncover signs of bottoming out. However, given a elemental circumstances, a liberation in equity markets might see a Nasdaq redeem during a faster rate relations to a peers.

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Forex for Beginners

Nasdaq Outlook

The Nasdaq index might be in a early stages of a liberation as a tech-leaning benchmark jumps after bottoming out during a two-month low around 10599.00. The subsequent separator to transparent will expected be a informed stalling indicate during 11263.6 where a index formerly encountered attrition along a climb in mid-August and along a skirmish in early September.

Nasdaq Index – Daily Chart

Chart display Nasdaq Index

Nasdaq draft combined regulating TradingView

Clearing it 11263.6 with follow-through might buoy traders and revive certainty in a Nasdaq’s potential. In that scenario, a vicious separator to transparent will be a prior all-time high during 12074.1 a tech benchmark formerly hovered before spectacularly crashing over 10 percent in reduction than a month.

— Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To hit Dimitri, use a comments territory next or@ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

Gold Price Trades Below 50-Day SMA for First Time Since June

Gold Price Talking Points

The price of gold appears to be broadly tracking a change in tellurian equity prices as bullion tags a uninformed monthly low ($1883) progressing this week, and a serve change in risk view might coax a exam of a Aug low ($1863) as Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits during a lowest spin given March.

Gold Price Trades Below 50-Day SMA for First Time Since June

The cost of bullion trades subsequent a 50-Day SMA ($1941) for a initial time given Jun even yet Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell strikes a dovish tinge in front of US lawmakers, and it stays to be seen if a pullback from a record high ($2075) will spin out to be a change in marketplace behavior or an depletion in a bullish trend as a Fed stays “committed to regulating a collection to do what we can, for as prolonged as it takes, to safeguard that a liberation will be as clever as possible.”

The cost movement following a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) seductiveness rate decisions suggests market participants wereanticipating a some-more dovish brazen superintendence as the executive bankplans to “achieve acceleration that averages 2 percent over time, and it seems as yet a FOMC will rest on a stream collection to support a US economy as Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) shows a longer run seductiveness rate foresee unvaried from a Jun meeting.

Recent remarks from Chairman Powell also prove that a FOMC is in no rush to change a trail for financial process amid a “adjustments to Main Street to yield larger support to tiny and medium-sized businesses and to nonprofit organizations,” and a Fed might continue to tweak a lending comforts rather than muster some-more radical collection as a executive bank vows to “increase a land of Treasury bonds and group mortgage-backed bonds during slightest during a stream pace.”

In turn, loss conjecture for additional financial support might continue to corrupt risk ardour as Fed officials insist that the “recovery has progressed some-more fast than generally expected,” yet a crowding function in a US Dollar mostly persists even yet retail traders spin net-long GBP/USD.

Image of IG Client Sentiment

The IG Client Sentiment news continues to uncover retail tradersnet-long USD/CHF, USD/CAD and USD/JPY, with a throng still net-short AUD/USD, EUR/USD and NZD/USD. Positioning in GBP/USD has flipped for a second time this month as 50.72% of traders are now net-long the pair, yet broader marketplace trends might insist over a residue of a month as a Fed’s change sheet binds above $7 trillion in September.

With that said, a Fed’s dovish brazen superintendence may continue to worsen a seductiveness of bullion as an choice to fiat-currencies, and the bullish trend in bullion might continue to coincide with a crowding function in a US Dollar as a macroeconomic opinion stays mostly unvaried following a FOMC meeting.

However, the technical opinion is dark with churned signals as the cost of bullion trades subsequent a 50-Day SMA ($1941) for a initial time given June even yet a relocating normal continues to lane a certain slope from progressing this year, and a Relative Strength Index (RSI) might continue to uncover a bullish movement reducing as it sits during a lowest spin given March.

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How to Use IG Client Sentiment in Your Trading

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Gold Price Daily Chart

Image of Gold cost daily chart

Source: Trading View

  • The cost of bullion pushed to uninformed yearly highs during each singular month so distant in 2020, with a bullish cost movement also holding figure in Aug as changed steel tagged a new 2020 high ($2075).
  • The cost of bullion privileged a prior record high available in Sep 2011 ($1921) even yet a Relative Strength Index (RSI) unsuccessful to keep a ceiling from June, yet a indicator registered a new impassioned reading (88) for 2020 as a oscillator pushed into overbought domain for a third time this year.
  • However, a bullish function has unsuccessful to manifest in Sep as a cost of bullion trades subsequent a 50-Day SMA ($1941) for a initial time given June, with new developments in a RSI negating a wedge/triangle formation determined in Aug as a indicator sits during a lowest spin given March.
  • Lack of movement to reason above a $1907 (100% expansion) to $1920 (161.8% expansion) segment brings a Aug low ($1863) on a radar as it mostly lines adult with a Fibonacci overlie around $1847 (100% expansion) to $1857 (61.8% expansion), with a subsequent area of seductiveness entrance in around $1816 (61.8% expansion) to $1822 (50% expansion).
  • At a same time, disaster to mangle a Aug low ($1863) might beget operation firm conditions, yet need a break/close above a overlie around $1971 (100% expansion) to $1985 (261.8% expansion) to move a topside behind on a radar.

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Traits of Successful Traders

— Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

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Dow Jones Rebounds, DAX Consolidates, Hang Seng May Form "AB=CD"

DOW JONES, DAX 30, HANG SENG INDEX OUTLOOK:

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounded softly from a 100-Day SMA during 26,900
  • DAX 30 index might connect after combining a vast bearish candlestick. Bollinger Band widened
  • Hang Seng Index (HSI) might form a bullish “AB=CD” pattern

Dow Jones Index Outlook:

Dow Jones Industrial Average index (DJIA) futures are oscillating during Asia open after induction a tiny benefit overnight. Concerns remain, however, over a coronavirus resurgence in partial of a EU, and shrinking hopes for a US mercantile stimulus plan. The US Dollar climbed for a second day to 94.00 – a top turn seen in over 7 weeks. A stronger US Dollar looks set to cold changed steel and crude oil prices.

On a calendar, a RBNZ interest rate decision during 10:00 SGT and US Markit Manufacturing PMI readings to be expelled during 21:45 SGT are among a pivotal events today. Read some-more on a economic calendar.

The VIX destiny tenure structure (chart below) suggests that a marketplace is pricing in aloft levels of sensitivity heading adult to a US Presidential Election, with VIX futures peaking in early Nov and reverting behind thereafter.

Dow Jones Rebounds, DAX Consolidates, Hang Seng May Form AB=CD

Source: vixcentral.com

Overnight trade displayed a sincerely balanced sectoral pattern, with information record (+1.37%), communication services (+1.09%) and consumer staples (+0.83%) leading, while appetite (-1.01%), financials (-0.67%) and materials (-0.23%) lagged.

Dow Jones Index Sector opening 22-9-2020

Dow Jones Rebounds, DAX Consolidates, Hang Seng May Form AB=CD

Source: Bloomberg, DailyFX

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How to Use IG Client Sentiment in Your Trading

Technically,the Dow Jones found some support during a 100-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA) line, that is hovering around a 26,900 level. Despite a amiable benefit final night, a overall movement appears inequitable towards a downside, as cost plunged next a reduce Bollinger Band dual days ago and shaped a vast bearish candlestick. A mangle next then100-Day SMA is expected to open a room for serve waste with an eye on 26,650 – a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.

Dow Jones IndexDaily Chart

Dow Jones Rebounds, DAX Consolidates, Hang Seng May Form AB=CD

DAX 30 Index Outlook:

Germany’s DAX 30 also purebred a vast bearish candlestick on Monday, that flags some-more turmoil ahead. A poignant widening of a Bollinger Band suggests there might be some-more offered vigour in a days to come while a MACD indicator has also flipped decisively into a disastrous territory. The technical observations are in line with a elemental picture, with a pathogen resurgence potentially crude Europe’s frail mercantile recovery.

DAX 30 Index – Daily Chart

Dow Jones Rebounds, DAX Consolidates, Hang Seng May Form AB=CD

Hang Seng Index Outlook:

In a past 4 weeks, a HSI has trailed a vital peers – such as a Dow Jones, Nikkei 225 and DAX 30 – due to mixed headwinds. Financial names were among a misfortune performers yesterday, with HSBC (-2.05%), Hang Seng Bank (-1.28%) and AIA (-1.09%) heading a decline.

Technically, HSI is expected combining a bullish “AB=CD” settlement (chart below), with a intensity support turn found during 23,300. A organisation miscarry from a “D” indicate might vigilance a intensity trend reversal. However, serve decrease next a “D” indicate could potentially lead to a exam of a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement turn during 22,900.

Hang Seng Index Daily Chart

Dow Jones Rebounds, DAX Consolidates, Hang Seng May Form AB=CD

Building Confidence in Trading
Building Confidence in Trading

— Written by Margaret Yang, Strategist for DailyFX.com

To hit Margaret, use a Comments territory next or @margaretyjy on Twitter

Market Outlook Ahead of a First Biden-Trump Presidential Debate

2020 Election, Biden-Trump Presidential Debate, Market Outlook, Election Polls – Talking Points

  • How will financial markets conflict heading adult to, during and following a initial presidential debate?
  • Biden continues to say stout lead over Trump in ubiquitous choosing polls, normal betting odds
  • What topics will be discussed and how have past debates shabby electorate forward of a election?

ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW BEFORE THE FIRST PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE

  1. Who are a candidates?
  2. When is a debate?
  3. Who is moderating it?
  4. What topics will be discussed?
  5. How will financial markets react?

The initial presidential discuss of a 2020 choosing between former Vice President and Democratic hopeful Joe Biden and President Donald Trump will be hold on Sep 29 from 9:00-10:30 P.M. ET. The eventuality is set to take place during Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland. Fox News anchor Chris Wallace will be moderating a debate.

The inactive Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) announced that a discuss will be damaged adult into 6 15-minute sections. Each claimant will be given dual mins to respond to any doubt during a start of each segment. To get additional sum of destiny presidential and clamp presidential debates, see a CPD’s central report here.

In a prior election, a initial discuss between afterwards Democratic hopeful and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump drew a record or 84 million views. Up until that point, a Carter-Reagan discuss in a 1980s had a many views during 80.6 million. Given a economic, domestic and amicable turmoil this year, it would not be startling to see this discuss tip a prior election’s record.

Chart display choosing data

Source: NBC

With so most on a line given a diverging process approaches between Biden and Trump – and their multi-iterated implications – viewers might be quite penetrating on tuning in this year. Generally, investigate has shown that debates do not seem to have a poignant impact on changeable voters’ allegiances. For a past roughly three-decades – detached from 2016 – a claimant that led going into a discuss always won a election.

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How to Use IG Client Sentiment in Your Trading

While a CPD warned that a discuss topics are “subject to probable changes since of news developments”, a non-partisan elect has summarized a following themes that will be discussed:

  1. The Trump and Biden Records
  2. The Supreme Court
  3. Covid-19
  4. The Economy
  5. Race and Violence in a Cities
  6. The Integrity of a Election

From a market-oriented perspective, investors will be penetrating on examination a candidates’ responses to questions about a economy and a coronavirus pandemic. Their particular answers will expected lift process implications with them that markets might afterwards cost in and re-allocate collateral accordingly. That re-arrangement of opposite item mixtures might perceptible as volatility.

Chart display RCP betting averages

Source: RealClearPolitics

The other topics might usually impact markets to a border Biden’s or Trump’s responses to them change their station in a polls. Generally vocalization – detached from a brief though heated squeezing widespread in late-August – President Trump has been trailing Biden in inhabitant betting averages. Swing states sojourn adult in a air, though a former Vice President’s opening so distant shows a earnest trajectory.

How Will Financial Markets React to Presidential Debates?

So far, a choosing has not had a transparent or discernible impact on financial markets as investors contend with some-more evident issues like surging coronavirus cases and bipartisan intransigence over another impulse bill. Having pronounced that, a initial presidential discuss might be where markets knowledge politically-induced sensitivity from a election.

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Forex for Beginners

If polls uncover Mr. Trump’s recognition flourishing after a debate, view might spin green and pull a haven-linked US Dollar aloft along with a anti-risk Japanese Yen. Cycle-sensitive FX like AUD and NZD might shelter with growth-anchored line like crude oil. The awaiting of Trump’s reelection from a market-oriented viewpoint might meant another 4 years of cross-continental trade wars and tragedy with China.

Conversely, if Biden outperforms, we might see this energetic reverse. The former Vice President’s proceed to general and domestic process falls some-more in line with a pre-2016 standing quo. For investors, this might meant reduction doubt and an sourroundings gainful for risk-taking both in suppositional investments and – from a viewpoint of businesses – expanding cross-border investment.

— Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To hit Dimitri, use a comments territory next or@ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

New Zealand Dollar Gains on RBNZ, But NZD/USD May Follow S&P 500 Lower

New Zealand Dollar, NZD/USD, RBNZ – Talking Points

  • New Zealand Dollar appreciates on a RBNZ rate decision
  • Sentiment-linked NZD is during risk to rising sensitivity in equities
  • NZD/USD might tumble formed on bearish technical warning signs

The New Zealand Dollar gained on a RBNZ rate decision, as expected in my elemental forecast. The benchmark lending rate was confirmed during 0.25%, as widely expected by economists. What seemed to expostulate a NZD aloft instead was many expected an deficiency of serve quantitative easing measures or a spirit of coercion in a nearby term. That expected unhappy expectations, ensuing in a reduction dovish outcome.

Forex for Beginners
Forex for Beginners

The RBNZ did however keep a doorway open to yield additional stimulus, with collection such as a disastrous seductiveness rate. In fact, a executive bank reported that a banking complement is on lane to be prepared in an sourroundings of disastrous rates. This creates sense, a RBNZ sees a change of risks as slanted to a downside. There might be a arise in stagnation and an boost in organisation closures.

Additional Commentary from a Reserve Bank of New Zealand

  • Progress is being done on additional financial tools
  • Monetary process needs to support the economy for a prolonged time
  • Alternative collection can be deployed independently
  • The executive bank prefers to launch a bank appropriation module before finish of 2020

Heading into a RBNZ, overnight index swaps were pricing in about a 75% luck of a 25-basis indicate rate cut in February. These contingency might have been rather diminished. Today’s seductiveness rate proclamation also follows in a footsteps of a Federal Reserve from final week. There, Chair Jerome Powell seemed to demonstrate a miss of coercion to enhance a change sheet, withdrawal equities exposed to disappointment.

Going forward, a sentiment-linked Kiwi Dollar stays underneath a forgiveness of ubiquitous risk appetite. Lately, a unsatisfactory on Wall Street has left a banking vulnerable. Investors might be flourishing increasingly desirous by a miss of coercion from a Federal Reserve to materially boost item purchases. This is as a second mercantile package stays on a sidelines given ongoing stalemates between members of Congress.

New Zealand Dollar Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, a New Zealand Dollar could be during risk to fluctuating losses. NZD/USD recently sealed underneath a rising trend line from March, confirming a breakout. This followed a presentation of a bearish Shooting Star candlestick formation and disastrous RSI divergence. The latter showed vanishing upside momentum. Key support sits next as a 0.6503 – 0.6537 operation followed by 0.6381 – 0.6419.

NZD/USD Daily Chart

New Zealand Dollar Gains on RBNZ, But NZD/USD May Follow Samp;P 500 Lower

Chart Created in TradingView

— Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To hit Daniel, use a comments territory next or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/nzd/2020/09/19/New-Zealand-Dollar-Outlook-NZDUSD-May-Rise-on-RBNZ-Watch-SP-500.html

Copper Price Outlook Remains Bullish Despite Shift in Risk Appetite

Copper Prices, XCU/USD, Average Inflation Targeting, Volatility, Inflation Expectations – Talking Points:

  • Copper prices might continue to pull aloft notwithstanding a worrying swell of Covid-19 infections in several European nations.
  • The Federal Reserve’s adoption of AIT might put a building underneath a cost of a plastic metal.
  • XCU/USD constructively perched above psychological support. Is a pull to uninformed yearly highs in a offing?

As remarkable in prior reports, copper’s 56% swell from a Mar low is showing small signs of abating, after a cost of a plastic steel soared to a uninformed two-year high (3.0945) during a commencement of a month on a behind of resilient tellurian production activity and mountainous Chinese demand.

However, a reimposition of coronavirus lockdown measures in several European nations and a miss of swell in Congressional impulse talks might top a intensity upside for a tellurian expansion proxy, as British Prime Minister Boris Johnson urges residents to work from home if probable and introduces new restrictions that are expected to final for a subsequent 6 months.

That being said, copper prices have remained comparatively unblushing by a ‘second wave’ of Covid-19 infections and new resurgence of volatility, with a plastic steel climbing 0.81% in Sep notwithstanding a CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) spiking as most as 53%.

To contrast, a US benchmark SP 500 (-10.29%) and a tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index (-14.38%) have depressed over 10% given pulling to uninformed record highs during a commencement of a month.

Copper Price Outlook Remains Bullish Despite Shift in Risk Appetite

Data Source – Bloomberg

The orange metal’s resilience could be down to a clever certain association with 5-year acceleration expectations, clearly determined when a Federal Reserve set a 2% acceleration rate aim in Jan 2012.

Therefore, with a US executive bank adopting a stretchable form of normal acceleration targeting (AIT) and Fed Chair Jerome Powell saying that “well-anchored acceleration expectations are vicious for giving a Fed a embodiment to support practice when necessary”, a receptive to design that copper prices might continue to pierce aloft over a longer-term.

Given AIT allows a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to extend accommodative financial process measures following durations of below-target cost increases “to grasp acceleration tolerably above 2 percent for some time”.

Copper Price Weekly Chart – ‘Golden Cross’ Indicative of Swelling Bullish Momentum

Copper Price Outlook Remains Bullish Despite Shift in Risk Appetite

Copper (HG) Futures weekly draft total regulating TradingView

From a technical perspective, copper looks staid to extend a stand from a ennui of March, after ripping by Symmetrical Triangle insurgency and induction overbought readings on a RSI for a initial time given Sep 2017.

Moreover, a MACD indicators swell to a top levels given 2017, total with a relocating normal ‘golden cross’ formation, hints during building bullish movement and could enthuse would-be buyers if cost stays constructively perched above a Jan high (2.9930).

A weekly tighten above pivotal insurgency during a 38.2% Fibonacci (3.1040) is indispensable to vigilance a resumption of a primary uptrend and potentially carve a trail for cost to exam a 2017 high (3.3220).

Conversely, a mangle next psychological support during a 3.000 symbol could enthuse a some-more postulated pullback and move a 50% Fibonacci (2.7620) into focus.

Copper Price Daily Chart – 21-DMA Guiding Price Higher

Copper Price Outlook Remains Bullish Despite Shift in Risk Appetite

Copper (HG) Futures daily draft total regulating TradingView

However, zooming into a daily timeframe suggests that a annulment reduce could be in a offing, as cost carves out a bearish Rising Wedge settlement and fails to tighten above a psychologically commanding 3.10 level.

That being said, with copper prices stability to lane above a 21-, 50- and 200-day relocating averages, a trail of slightest insurgency seems lopsided to a topside.

With that in mind, a pull to uninformed yearly highs could proceed in a entrance weeks if support during a Jul high (2.9930) stays intact, with a daily tighten above a 38.2% Fibonacci (3.1040) substantially signalling a resumption of a primary uptrend.

On a other hand, a daily tighten next a 3.000 symbol might countenance a downside mangle of a Rising Wedge settlement and potentially enthuse a pullback towards a sentiment-defining 200-DMA (2.7245)

— Written by Daniel Moss, Analyst for DailyFX

Follow me on Twitter @DanielGMoss

How to Use IG Client Sentiment in Your Trading
How to Use IG Client Sentiment in Your Trading