AUD/USD Rate Forecast: 2020 High on Radar Following RBA Minutes

Australian Dollar Talking Points

AUD/USD tagged a uninformed weekly high (0.7343) as a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Minutes offering small hints for additional financial support, and a Federal Reserve seductiveness rate preference might keep stream marketplace trends in place as a executive bank skeleton to “achieve acceleration that averages 2 percent over time.”

AUD/USD Rate Forecast: 2020 High on Radar Following RBA Minutes

AUD/USD might continue to retrace a decrease from a 2020 high (0.7414) as a RBA Minutes advise a executive bank will rest on a stream collection to support a mercantile recovery, and Governor Philip Lowe and Co. might hang to a sidelines after tweaking a Term Funding Facility in September as “members concluded that a Board’s process package implemented in midst Mar was stability to support a Australian economy.

It seems as yet a RBA is in no rush to muster additional financial measures even yet a Governor Lowe and Co. “consider how serve financial measures could support a recovery” as a executive bank relies on a yield-target program, with a house insisting that “further purchases should be undertaken as required to say a target.

Image of DailyFX mercantile calendar for Australia

In turn, it stays to be seen if a refurbish a Australia’s Employment news will change a financial process opinion as a economy is approaching to strew 50K jobs in August, yet a macroeconomic sourroundings might keep AUD/USD afloat forward of a subsequent RBA rate preference on Oct 6 as a Federal Reserve plans to “achieve acceleration that averages 2 percent over time.

As a result, a refurbish to a Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) might lean a near-term opinion for AUD/USD if a interest rate dot-plot might shows a downward rider in a longer-run forecast, yet some-more of a same from a Jun assembly might hint a singular greeting as Chairman Jerome Powell and Co. vouch to “increase a land of Treasury bonds and group residential and blurb mortgage-backed bonds during slightest during a stream pace.

Looking ahead, stream marketplace trends might sojourn in place as a RBA rules out a negative seductiveness rate process (NIRP) for Australia, and a crowding function in AUD/USD might lift into a finish of a month as sell traders have been net-short a span given April.

Image of IG Client Sentiment for AUD/USD rate

The IG Client Sentiment report shows 44.86% of traders are net-long with a ratio of traders brief to prolonged during 1.23 to 1. The series of traders net-long is 1.56% aloft than yesterday and 3.17% reduce from final week, while a series of traders net-short is 4.07% reduce than yesterday and 4.43% aloft from final week.

The new arise in net-long position has helped to assuage a lean in sell view as usually 41.74% of traders were net-long AUD/USD progressing this week, yet a crowding function looks staid to insist even yet a sell rate trades to a uninformed yearly (0.7414) high in September.

With that said, AUD/USD might continue to vaunt a bullish trend as it reverses march forward of a 50-Day SMA (0.7176), and a Relative Strength Index (RSI) might uncover a bullish movement entertainment gait as it climbs towards overbought territory.

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AUD/USD Rate Daily Chart

Image of AUD/USD rate daily chart

Source: Trading View

  • Keep in mind, the allege from a 2020 low (0.5506) collected gait as AUD/USD pennyless out of a Apr range, with a sell rate clearing a January high (0.7016) in Jun as a Relative Strength Index (RSI) pushed into overbought territory.
  • AUD/USD managed to transparent a Jun high (0.7064) in Jul even yet a RSI unsuccessful to keep a ceiling trend from progressing this year, with a sell rate pulling to uninformed yearly highs in Aug and Sep to trade during a top spin given 2018.
  • Recent developments in a RSI instilled a bullish opinion for AUD/USD as it threatened a downward trend from progressing this year to pull into overbought territory for a fourth time in 2020, yet a text sell-signal has emerged as a indicator quickly slipped behind subsequent 70.
  • In turn, AUD/USD might continue to lane a monthly operation following a unsuccessful try to exam a Jul 2018 high (0.7484), yet a sell rate appears to have topsy-turvy march forward of a 50-Day SMA (0.7176) as it mostly preserves a ceiling trend determined in June.
  • Will keep a tighten eye on a RSI as it climbs towards overbought territory, with a pierce above 70 expected to be accompanied by a serve appreciation in AUD/USD like a function seen in June.
  • Until then, a miscarry from a monthly low (0.7192) might accumulate gait as AUD/USD binds above a 0.7270 (23.6% expansion) region, with a Fibonacci overlie around 0.7370 (38.2% expansion) to 0.7390 (38.2% expansion) behind on a radar as a sell rate clings to trendline support.
  • Need a mangle of a 2020 high (0.7414) to open adult a 0.7480 (50% expansion) region, with a subsequent area of seductiveness entrance in around 0.7560 (50% expansion) to 0.7590 (61.8% expansion).

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— Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

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