Gold Price Forecast: Gold Breaks Down to Fresh Four-Month-Lows

Gold Price Forecast Talking Points:

  • Gold prices pennyless down this morning on a behind of USD-strength driven from the US PMI report.
  • Gold prices set uninformed four-month-lows, holding out a large territory of support along a way.
  • The longer-term demeanour in Gold still stays bullish as Gold cost movement continues to trade in a proportions of a descending crowd formation.
  • The research contained in article relies on price action and chart formations. To learn some-more about cost movement or draft patterns, check out a DailyFX Education section.

The surging bullish trend in Gold from this summer now feels a small serve away…

Gold prices pennyless down this morning on a behind of a unequivocally clever PMI imitation out of a US. That PMI imitation prodded a US Dollar higher and Gold, going along for a ride, pennyless down to uninformed four-month-lows.

Perhaps a partial of this that’s some-more engaging than a distance of a pierce itself is where it happened; Gold prices had been contrast the same support zone ever given early-August. This area between 1859-1871 enclosed mixed Fibonacci levels from opposite studies, and it hold countless inflections over a past few months until buyers finally pulled behind on a bid this morning, permitting for Gold prices to slip down to that uninformed low.

It can seem really elementary to get bearish on a pierce of this nature: But Gold bears should be really clever here given a longer-term backdrop, that we’ll demeanour during below.

Gold Daily Price Chart: Fresh Four-Month-Lows as Big Support Traded Through

Gold Daily Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; Gold on Tradingview

Gold Prices – Bigger Picture

Taking a step behind to demeanour during a bigger design on Gold – and a longer-term bullish cycle remains. Today’s sell-off has intent with a 38.2% retracement of a 2020 vital move, taken from a Mar low adult to a Aug high.

That Aug high came into play on Aug 7th, commanding out during a uninformed all-time-high of $2075. But – that day’s cost movement sealed with a bearish engulfing candlestick; and as remarkable in a technical foresee for that week, this non-stop a doorway for a contrarian pierce amidst that before strain of strength. It didn’t take prolonged for a pullback to rise as Gold prices gave behind some-more than $200 in a initial few days of a subsequent week. But, that’s when a 1859-1871 support territory came into play, and remained in-play for most of a subsequent 4 months until sellers were finally means to poise a mangle to start this week.

To learn some-more about bearish engulfing patterns, check out DailyFX Education

But a longer-term descending crowd arrangement still stays and a bigger-picture demeanour can keep a bullish quality. But given a fact that Gold prices have only pushed to a uninformed low, that longer-term bullish thesis might have to sojourn in-wait, during slightest for now.

Gold Weekly Price Chart: Falling Wedge Formation Remains

Gold Weekly Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; Gold on Tradingview

Gold Price Near-Term Strategy

With Gold putting in a amiable rebound after those uninformed four-month-highs, there might be range for both bulls and bears here to exercise some form of strategy.

On a bearish side, for those looking during a continued sell-off in Gold prices, that before territory of support could turn insurgency potential. This territory runs from 1859-1871 and has seen a series of new support tests.

Gold Forecast
Gold Forecast

Gold Four-Hour Price Chart

Gold Four Hour Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; Gold on Tradingview

Traits of Successful Traders
Traits of Successful Traders

For Gold bulls, this downside mangle might indeed be rather welcome…

As looked during over a past integrate of months, this digestion has remained in-place with a few opposite fits and starts. There’ve been a series of fake breakouts and any time Gold has pushed adult to a uninformed high, shopping vigour has stalled and sellers have come into play. This could be emblematic of an overbought backdrop from that summer bullish run, as buyers were holding on to positions in expectation of topside continuation.

Of course, with today’s pull down to uninformed 4 month lows, there’ve expected been a series of stops from these traders get triggered, that primarily exacerbated a sell-off with that supply entrance online. But – this also means that there’s presumably now some-more income on a sidelines that could support with a bullish delay unfolding if/when buyers are means to justify support.

For that longer-term demeanour for Gold bulls, re-claiming a 1859 turn is a good initial step; and a follow-through object of support around that turn could give a coming that bulls are removing behind in order.

To learn some-more about falling crowd patterns, check out DailyFX Education

Gold Daily Price Chart

Gold Daily Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; Gold on Tradingview

— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

Mexican Peso Outlook: USD/MXN Bears Tire Near Downtrend Support

Mexican Peso Technical Price Outlook: USD/MXN Near-term Trade Levels

  • Mexican Peso updated technical trade levels – Daily Intraday Charts
  • USD/MXN decrease fails to reason next support – risk for bear marketplace recovery
  • Key near-term insurgency 20.6301 – decrease exposed into 19.8794

The US Dollar plummeted some-more than 9.2% off a monthly highs opposite a Mexican Peso with USD/MXN now probing longer-term technical support. While a broader opinion stays weighted to a downside, a bears might be exposed near-term only above downtrend support. These are a updated targets and cancellation levels that matter on a USD/MXN technical cost charts. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth relapse of this Peso setup and more.

Mexican Peso Price Chart – USD/MXN Daily

Mexican Peso Price Chart - USD/MXN Daily - Dollar vs Peso Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/MXN on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my final Mexican Peso Price Outlook we remarkable that USD/MXN was probing a pivotal support section during the, “2019 high-day tighten / Fibonacci support during 20.0752/1360 – looking for rhythm off this threshold.” Price sealed final week only next this threshold with annulment candle now melancholy a liberation within a broader downtrend.

Initial daily resistance eyed during a 75% together (currently ~20.6500) corroborated by a Sep low during 20.8377- broader bearish cancellation solid during 21.2317/2942. Look for a tighten next a Jun 2019 highs during 19.8794 to symbol resumption with such a unfolding exposing a 88.6% Fibonacci retracement during 19.3497.

Mexican Peso Price Chart – USD/MXN 120min

Mexican Peso Price Chart - USD/MXN 120min - Dollar vs Peso Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer demeanour during Peso cost movement shows USD/MXN stability to trade within a proportions of a near-term forward pitchfork formation fluctuating off a Jun / Sep highs. A brief exam of a monthly lows unsuccessful now with cost attempting to tighten aloft on a day. Initial insurgency 20.4336 with a crack above 20.6301 indispensable to advise a incomparable annulment is underway. Initial support solid during 19.8794 corroborated by a revoke together / 19.6591– use caution, a mangle next this threshold would expected fuel accelerated waste for a dollar.

USD Forecast
USD Forecast

Bottom line: Mexican Peso is figure a weekly opening-range only above downtrend support and while a broader risk stays lower, a evident decrease might be exposed here. From a trade standpoint, a good section to revoke brief bearing / revoke protecting stop – be on a surveillance for downside depletion while above 19.6591 with a crack / tighten above 20.6301 indispensable to change a concentration aloft in USD/MXN.

For a finish relapse of Michael’s trade strategy, examination his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Key US / Mexico Data Releases

Key US / Mexico Data Releases - USD/MXN Economic Calendar- Key Peso Event Risk

Economic Calendarlatest mercantile developments and arriving eventuality risk.

Active Technical Setups

— Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

NZD/USD Rate Forecast: Textbook RSI Sell Signal Takes Shape

New Zealand Dollar Talking Points

NZD/USDquickly pulls behind from a uninformed 2020 high (0.6968) as upbeat information prints entrance out of a US economy hint a bullish greeting in a Greenback, and a sell rate might connect over a entrance days as a Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears to be descending behind from overbought territory.

NZD/USD Rate Forecast: Textbook RSI Sell Signal Takes Shape

NZD/USD snaps a array of aloft highs and lows carried over from late final week as a Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for US production suddenly improves in November, with a index climbing to 56.7 from 53.4 a month before notwithstanding forecasts for a 53.0 print.

The bullish US Dollar greeting to a information could prove expectations of saying a Federal Reserve on a sidelines during a final assembly for 2020, and a executive bank might hang to a same book going into a year brazen as Chairman Jerome Powell and Co. vouch to “increase a land of Treasury bonds and group mortgage-backed bonds during slightest during a stream pace.

However, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may come underneath vigour to serve support a US economy as Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin lays out skeleton to breeze down a puncture lending facilities, and it stays to be seen if a FOMC will exhibit a some-more minute brazen superintendence during a Dec 16 seductiveness rate preference as Chairman Jerome Powell and Co. are scheduled to refurbish a Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).

Until then, pivotal marketplace trends might continue to change NZD/USD even yet a Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) implements a Funding for Lending Program (FLP) as Governor Adrian Orr and Co. keep a central money rate (OCR) during a record low. In turn, swings in risk ardour might lean a sell rate as a US Dollar broadly reflects an different attribute with financier confidence, and a lean in sell view also looks staid to insist over a entrance days as a crowding function from progressing this year resurfaces.

Image of IG Client Sentiment for NZD/USD rate

The IG Client Sentiment report shows usually 22.10% of traders are net-long NZD/USD, with a ratio of traders brief to long standing during 3.52 to 1. The series of traders net-long is 20.00% aloft than yesterday and 0.99% aloft from final week, while a series of traders net-short is 4.20% aloft than yesterday and 33.40% aloft from final week.

The arise in net-long position comes as NZD/USD trades to uninformed yearly highs in November, though a boost in net-short seductiveness has led to a larger lean in sell view as 26.27% of traders were net-long a span during a prior week.

With that said, pivotal marketplace trends might keep NZD/USD afloat as a sell rate privileged the 2019 high (0.6942) progressing this month, though the sell rate might consolidate going into a finish of a month as a Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears to be descending behind from overbought territory.

How to Use IG Client Sentiment in Your Trading
How to Use IG Client Sentiment in Your Trading

NZD/USD Rate Daily Chart

Image of NZD/USD rate daily chart

Source: Trading View

  • Keep in mind, NZD/USD privileged a Feb high (0.6503) in Jun as a Relative Strength Index (RSI) pennyless above 70 for a initial time in 2020, with a sell rate holding out a January high (0.6733) in Sep following a tighten above a Fibonacci overlie around 0.6710 (61.8% expansion) to 0.6740 (23.6% expansion).
  • However, lack of movement to tighten above a 0.6790 (50% expansion) region pushed NZD/USD next a Fibonacci overlie around 0.6600 (38.2% expansion) to 0.6630 (78.6% expansion), with a RSI slipping to a lowest turn given Apr during a same period.
  • NZD/USD seemed to be on lane to exam a August low (0.6489) as a RSI determined a downward trend in September, though a decrease from a 2020 high (0.6798)turned out to be an depletion in a bullish trend rather than a change in NZD/USD behavior as the overlap around 0.6490 (50% expansion) to 0.6520 (100% expansion) supposing support.
  • The RSI highlighted a identical energetic as it reverses march brazen of oversold domain to mangle out of a bearish arrangement from September, with a oscillator substantiating an ceiling trend in October.
  • Lack of movement to exam a August low (0.6489) pushed NZD/USD behind above a 0.6600 (38.2% expansion) to 0.6630 (78.6% expansion) region, with a sell rate clearing a September high (0.6798) progressing this month, that pushed a RSI into overbought domain for a initial time given June.
  • NZD/USD also privileged a 2019 high (0.6942) as it trades to uninformed yearly highs in November, though a sell rate might connect over a entrance days as a RSI appears to be descending behind from overbought territory and indicates a text sell signal.
  • The text RSI offered takes figure following a fibre of unsuccessful attempts to break/close above a Fibonacci overlie around 0.6930 (23.6% expansion) to 0.6980 (78.6% expansion), with a pierce next a 0.6850 (38.2% expansion) to 0.6870 (50% retracement) segment bringing a 0.6790 (50% expansion) area behind on a radar.
  • Need a break/close above a Fibonacci overlie around 0.6930 (23.6% expansion) to 0.6980 (78.6% expansion) to open adult a 0.7080 (61.8% expansion) to 0.7140 (50% expansion) region.

Traits of Successful Traders
Traits of Successful Traders

— Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter during @DavidJSong

Nasdaq 100 Forecast: Tech Stock Gains Slow as Volatility Ebbs

Nasdaq 100 Price Outlook:

  • Equity cost movement has stagnated following a drawdown in sensitivity after a Presidential election
  • While coronavirus vaccine news continues to buoy sentiment, gains in many bonds have also slowed
  • Nasdaq Trading Basics: How to Trade Nasdaq 100

Nasdaq 100 Forecast: Tech Stock Gains Slow as Volatility Ebbs

The Nasdaq 100 has dispossessed a standing as a personality in equity cost gains this month following a drawdown in sensitivity and a slight change in a elemental landscape. While a tech-heavy index boasts an considerable benefit of roughly 7% in a month-to-date, a Dow Jones has climbed some-more than 11% in a same period. Elsewhere, a small-cap Russell 2000 index has climbed an implausible 18% in Nov alone.

nasdaq 100 to dji cost draft

Chart combined in TradingView

Consequently, a Nasdaq 100 to Dow Jones ratio rests nearby a lowest levels of a final 5 months, highlighting a new change in direct among equity traders. Still, this is not to contend a opinion has altered wholly as a broader instruction of all US indices, and indeed even those abroad, seems to be aloft during this time. Clearly a intensity growth of a coronavirus vaccine has played a purpose in this new shift, though seasonality competence be an underappreciated influencer of new cost action.

Nasdaq 100 Forecast: Tech Stock Gains Slow as Volatility Ebbs

Source: Bloomberg John Kicklighter

According to information given 1980, Oct typically outlines a tallness of marketplace sensitivity on normal – as totalled by a VIX – with successive months saying a light decrease in a market’s “fear gauge.” That being said, Nov and Dec generally bode good for a SP 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones with both months braggadocio a certain lapse on normal over a final forty years. Thus, it could be argued a new slack in cost movement is within a area of broader anniversary trends – a potentiality usually exacerbated by election-related uncertainty.

Nasdaq 100 Price Chart: 4 – Hour Time Frame (September – November)

nasdaq 100 cost draft

With that in mind, a Nasdaq 100 stays in an enlivening position looking to a months ahead. While coronavirus vaccine headlines have helped hint a revolution in some sectors, a uptake on a intensity vaccine will expected take months to grasp that competence leave some of a new zone favorites exposed to debility in a medium-term. Either way, it seems a Nasdaq 100 is slanted aloft during this time, notwithstanding other indices outpacing it in November.

–Written by Peter Hanks, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

USD Price Outlook: US Dollar Bulls Hold Critical Support Zone

US DOLLAR PRICE OUTLOOK: USD BULLS DEFENDING KEY TECHNICAL SUPPORT LEVEL

  • US Dollar sensitivity accelerated on Monday as a Greenback staged a large intraday reversal
  • DXY Index recoiled aloft as US Dollar bulls keep fortifying a pivotal technical support level
  • USD cost movement competence continue to vacillate within a proportions of a broader trade range

The US Dollar inked a outrageous intraday annulment during Monday’s trade session. USD cost movement declined a important -0.4% as totalled by a broad-based US Dollar Index early on, though following a recover of an considerable US PMI report, a Greenback subsequently staged an eye-popping convene to finish a day adult about 0.2% on balance. The liquid of US Dollar strength also appears to coincide with a miscarry off a vicious technical support turn as bulls continue to urge a 92.00-handle on a DXY Index.

DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX PRICE CHART: MONTHLY TIME FRAME (FEB 2011 TO NOV 2020)

DXY Index Price Chart US Dollar Technical Outlook

Chart by @RichDvorakFX combined regulating TradingView

A big-picture demeanour during a US Dollar Index regulating monthly candlesticks brings to concentration a longstanding bullish trendline extended by a May 2011 and May 2014 pitch lows. USD offered vigour given a Mar 2020 pitch high stays a prevalent theme, though US Dollar bulls have stood their belligerent and kept a Greenback mostly afloat around this pivotal technical zone.

Trading Forex News: The Strategy
Trading Forex News: The Strategy

In further to a reduce Bollinger Band, this intensity area of irresolution is also highlighted by a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of a May 2011 to Jan 2017 trade range. A purify mangle next this support turn around a 92.00-mark competence open a doorway to some-more US Dollar downside – maybe toward a 2018 pitch lows. Nevertheless, it seems some-more approaching that a US Dollar Index could continue along a violent deposit laterally with a 50-day simple relocating average nearby a 93.30-price station out as a intensity turn of resistance.

USD PRICE OUTLOOK: US DOLLAR IMPLIED VOLATILITY TRADING RANGES (1-WEEK)

USD Price Chart US Dollar Implied Volatility Trading Ranges EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY

Learn More – What is Implied Volatility Why Should Traders Care?

GBP/USD is approaching to be a many active major banking pair this week according to US Dollar pragmatic sensitivity readings only taken. This approaching follows flourishing prospects for UK officials to announce a long-awaited Brexit trade deal. Keeping an eye on a instruction of EUR/USD and USD/JPY via a week could also be advantageous saying that their particular 1-week pragmatic moves of 87-pips and 78-pips could blink satisfied sensitivity – quite deliberation a acceleration in US Dollar sensitivity on Monday.

— Written by Rich Dvorak, Analyst for DailyFX.com

Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time marketplace insight

Trade pressures and clever US information send AUD to bottom on new ranges

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