US Dollar, EUR/USD, AUD/USD Talking Points:
- Today outlines a Q3 tighten and a subsequent dual days pierce a bustling economic calendar.
- USD strength has shown in Sep though that’s been a change-of-pace to a bigger-picture trend of weakness. Which will take over in Q4?
- The research contained in article relies on price action and chart formations. To learn some-more about cost movement or draft patterns, check out a DailyFX Education section.
So we’re in a final hours of Q3 and a rest of this week brings some high-impact information out of a United States. This could offer to extend a near-term bullish trend in USD or, perhaps, might assistance to pierce bears behind into a brew to re-test those two-year-lows that came into play progressing this month.
Tomorrow could be generally thinking as we get both PCE and PMI numbers out of a US. The PCE array will give some discernment into inflationary pressure; and a day after brings Non-Farm Payrolls so marketplace participants will get an updated perspective on a practice design out of a United States. Collectively, these information outlays can assistance to re-frame a Sep cost that saw a conspicuous change-of-pace in both bonds and currencies.
US Dollar: Will Sep Close as Bullish Engulfing?
Coming into Sep a US Dollar was raid by a sell-off that had reason given a Mar spike. Prices in USD pushed down to uninformed two-year-lows on a initial day of a month, using into a hulk area of feeder support. That’s where matters start to shift, and after a support reason in a initial integrate of weeks of September, buyers got a bit some-more active final week in assisting a banking to lift adult to a uninformed high.
At this point, a monthly draft shows a not-yet-confirmed bullish engulfing pattern. Such formations will mostly be approached with a aim of bullish continuation, and when taken with a context of long-term support, this can keep a doorway open for bullish delay themes into a Q4 open. For this arrangement to confirm, today’s price action would need to tighten above a Aug open during 93.44.
US Dollar Monthly Price Chart
Taking a shorter-term demeanour during a matter: The US Dollar shows signs of bullish trend potential, focusing on a new array of higher-highs and higher-lows. The bigger doubt comes from where that higher-low support might benefaction itself. The cost around 93.60 appears of interest, as this is a 38.2% retracement of a new bullish pierce – and that turn is feeder with a before swing-high. A bit deeper, around 92.70 adult to 92.89 is another area of intensity – though a doubt contingency be asked if this section comes into play – have bulls begun to relinquish a white dwindle as bears uncover a larger pull.
US Dollar Eight-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; USD, DXY on Tradingview
EUR/USD Tests Lower-High Resistance
Of USD-pairs, EUR/USD continues to lift some allure as an appealing choice for USD-strength. I had formerly talked about insurgency intensity during a 1.2000 hoop in a pair. That cost came into play to start September, after that sellers started to take-over, highlighted by a crack of rising crowd support. And after final week’s really transparent lift of USD-strength, EUR/USD done a lift all a approach down towards a 1.1600 area before pulling back.
EUR/USD Daily Price Chart
Coming into this week we had looked during a short-side of a pair, plotting for insurgency intensity around that cost of before support, taken from around a 1.1750 psychological level. That insurgency came into play final night, and prices pushed down by some-more than 70 pips. But sellers were incompetent to say a pierce and that turn is now behind in-play.
This can be a constrained choice for those who wish to demeanour for USD-strength by tomorrow’s information outlay.
EUR/USD Four-Hour Price Chart
AUD/USD Bounce from Big Fig Continues
AUD/USD has been on utterly a float of recent – putting in an assertive sell-off final week on a behind of USD-strength. But – support showed adult during a .7000 psychological level and that’s helped to retreat a apportionment of that move. Buyers have come behind with propensity this week and prices are now pulling adult for a insurgency exam around before support, taken from a .7185 Fibonacci turn adult to around a .7200-handle.
There might be a bit of early insurgency display during this indicate from a before trendline projection, shown in a draft below. A reason here can be of seductiveness to sellers but, likely, that large section of before support being repurposed as insurgency would be even some-more attractive.
AUD/USD Daily Price Chart
— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com
Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX