US Dollar: Ready to Rumble with High-Impact Data

US Dollar, EUR/USD, AUD/USD Talking Points:

  • Today outlines a Q3 tighten and a subsequent dual days pierce a bustling economic calendar.
  • USD strength has shown in Sep though that’s been a change-of-pace to a bigger-picture trend of weakness. Which will take over in Q4?
  • The research contained in article relies on price action and chart formations. To learn some-more about cost movement or draft patterns, check out a DailyFX Education section.

So we’re in a final hours of Q3 and a rest of this week brings some high-impact information out of a United States. This could offer to extend a near-term bullish trend in USD or, perhaps, might assistance to pierce bears behind into a brew to re-test those two-year-lows that came into play progressing this month.

Tomorrow could be generally thinking as we get both PCE and PMI numbers out of a US. The PCE array will give some discernment into inflationary pressure; and a day after brings Non-Farm Payrolls so marketplace participants will get an updated perspective on a practice design out of a United States. Collectively, these information outlays can assistance to re-frame a Sep cost that saw a conspicuous change-of-pace in both bonds and currencies.

US Dollar: Will Sep Close as Bullish Engulfing?

Coming into Sep a US Dollar was raid by a sell-off that had reason given a Mar spike. Prices in USD pushed down to uninformed two-year-lows on a initial day of a month, using into a hulk area of feeder support. That’s where matters start to shift, and after a support reason in a initial integrate of weeks of September, buyers got a bit some-more active final week in assisting a banking to lift adult to a uninformed high.

At this point, a monthly draft shows a not-yet-confirmed bullish engulfing pattern. Such formations will mostly be approached with a aim of bullish continuation, and when taken with a context of long-term support, this can keep a doorway open for bullish delay themes into a Q4 open. For this arrangement to confirm, today’s price action would need to tighten above a Aug open during 93.44.

US Dollar Monthly Price Chart

US Dollar Monthly Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; USD, DXY on Tradingview

Taking a shorter-term demeanour during a matter: The US Dollar shows signs of bullish trend potential, focusing on a new array of higher-highs and higher-lows. The bigger doubt comes from where that higher-low support might benefaction itself. The cost around 93.60 appears of interest, as this is a 38.2% retracement of a new bullish pierce – and that turn is feeder with a before swing-high. A bit deeper, around 92.70 adult to 92.89 is another area of intensity – though a doubt contingency be asked if this section comes into play – have bulls begun to relinquish a white dwindle as bears uncover a larger pull.

US Dollar Eight-Hour Price Chart

US Dollar Eight-Hour Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; USD, DXY on Tradingview

EUR/USD Tests Lower-High Resistance

Of USD-pairs, EUR/USD continues to lift some allure as an appealing choice for USD-strength. I had formerly talked about insurgency intensity during a 1.2000 hoop in a pair. That cost came into play to start September, after that sellers started to take-over, highlighted by a crack of rising crowd support. And after final week’s really transparent lift of USD-strength, EUR/USD done a lift all a approach down towards a 1.1600 area before pulling back.

Building Confidence in Trading
Building Confidence in Trading

EUR/USD Daily Price Chart

EURUSD Daily Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; EUR/USD on Tradingview

Coming into this week we had looked during a short-side of a pair, plotting for insurgency intensity around that cost of before support, taken from around a 1.1750 psychological level. That insurgency came into play final night, and prices pushed down by some-more than 70 pips. But sellers were incompetent to say a pierce and that turn is now behind in-play.

Traits of Successful Traders
Traits of Successful Traders

This can be a constrained choice for those who wish to demeanour for USD-strength by tomorrow’s information outlay.

EUR/USD Four-Hour Price Chart

EURUSD Four Hour Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; EUR/USD on Tradingview

AUD/USD Bounce from Big Fig Continues

AUD/USD has been on utterly a float of recent – putting in an assertive sell-off final week on a behind of USD-strength. But – support showed adult during a .7000 psychological level and that’s helped to retreat a apportionment of that move. Buyers have come behind with propensity this week and prices are now pulling adult for a insurgency exam around before support, taken from a .7185 Fibonacci turn adult to around a .7200-handle.

There might be a bit of early insurgency display during this indicate from a before trendline projection, shown in a draft below. A reason here can be of seductiveness to sellers but, likely, that large section of before support being repurposed as insurgency would be even some-more attractive.

AUD/USD Daily Price Chart

AUDUSD Daily Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; AUD/USD on Tradingview

— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 Forecast for a Month Ahead

Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, SP 500 Oct Price Outlook:

Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, SP 500 Forecast for a Month Ahead

An expectedly flighty Sep saw a Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100 and SP 500 tumble from their Aug levels as sensitivity surged and choosing doubt grew. That said, Sep is historically a bearish month for equity markets and many investors were arising caution as a summer ennui drew to a close. Either way, cost movement in a final week of a month, and indeed of a third quarter, was encouraging, though does that advise bonds will continue aloft in October?

Stock Market Seasonality

Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, Samp;P 500 Forecast for a Month Ahead

Source: Bloomberg, gathered by John Kicklighter

While it is formidable to contend with any certainty, story suggests Oct is one of a improved behaving months of a year on normal with a SP 500 returning roughly 1% in a month over a final thirty years. That said, a chronological examination of a sensitivity index (VIX) reveals Oct has also been a many flighty month with an normal VIX turn of 22.5 given 1990. Still, past opening is frequency demonstrative of destiny formula and any calendar year can have estimable outliers that sire a trend.

Traits of Successful Traders
Traits of Successful Traders

That being said, a mixture for a flighty Oct are positively present. On a bullish side, analysts are anticipating for a coronavirus vaccine that will assist a lapse to normalcy while others adhere to a possibility of serve impulse packages. Conversely, many investors have turn desperate per a post-covid economy – maybe justly so as companies announce large layoffs.

vix cost draft

Further still, investors are already positioning for choosing associated volatility, evidenced by VIX futures. Evidently, a story of a equity marketplace is distant from a fairytale and a anniversary arise in sensitivity will work to intensify cost swings in possibly direction. Nevertheless, a joining from a Fed to say low seductiveness rates should yield a tailwind for equity valuations in a longer-term.

Equities Forecast
Equities Forecast

While a longer-term opinion unfolds, we trust a choosing will turn an increasingly widespread thesis to watch in a fourth entertain and serve sensitivity seems likely. In a meantime, follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter for updates and analysis.

–Written by Peter Hanks, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

Finland Trade Deficit Narrows Less Than Estimated

Finland’s trade necessity decreased reduction than primarily estimated in July, final total from a Finnish Customs showed on Wednesday.

The trade necessity narrowed EUR 465 million in Jul from EUR 498 million in a same month final year. In a initial estimate, a trade necessity was EUR 440 million.

Exports declined 13.8 percent year-on-year in July, as primarily estimated.

Imports fell 13.1 percent yearly in July, while it was 13.8 percent decrease in a initial estimate.

Shipments to a EU countries decreased 9.9 percent in July. In a initial estimate, exports to a confederation fell 9.8 percent.

Imports from EU countries fell 11.4 percent in July. According to a initial estimate, imports declined 12.2 percent.

Shipments to countries outward a EU decreased 17.9 percent contra a 18.0 percent tumble in a initial estimate.

Imports from non-EU countries declined 15.3 percent, as estimated.

For a January-July period, a trade necessity was EUR 2.2 billion compared to a EUR 508 million shortfall purebred a year ago. In a initial estimate, a trade necessity was EUR 2.1 billion.

Exports declined 16.8 percent, as primarily estimated.

Imports decreased 12.2 percent contra a 12.3 percent tumble in a initial estimate.

Denmark Jobless Rate Falls In August

Denmark’s jobless rate declined in August, total from Statistics Denmark showed on Wednesday.

The sum stagnation rate fell to a seasonally practiced 4.9 percent in Aug from 5.2 percent in July.

The sum stagnation fell by 9,700 to 137,800 in Aug from 147,500 in a preceding month.

The girl jobless rate, that is germane to a 16 to 24 age group, fell to 2.2 percent in Aug from 2.5 percent in a prior month.

Based on a LFS data, a jobless rate was 6.1 percent in a 15 to 74 age group. The series of impoverished persons was 186,000 in August.