As suggested in a CFTC Commitments of Traders news in a week finished Mar 26, NET LENGTH in USD Index fell as both suppositional prolonged and brief positions dropped. NET LENGTH for USD index slipped -650 contracts, to 25 285. All vital currencies were in NET SHORT positions.
Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT for euro futures gained +2 574 contracts to 80 278. Traders embellished prolonged bets though combined shorts. Dovish comments by ECB officials have dented hopes of a stronger singular currency. NET SHORT for GBP futures declined -5 192 contracts to 8 582. Speculative prolonged positions jumped +3 481 contracts while suppositional shorts forsaken -1 711 contracts for a week.On safe-haven currencies, Net SHORT for CHF futures gained +106 contracts to 27 295. NET SHORT for JPY futures gained +2 900 contracts to 62 121 during a week. Bets fell on both sides.On commodity currencies . NET SHORT for AUD futures rose +1 768 contracts to 53 670. Speculative prolonged positions combined +2 366 contracts while shorts rose +4 134 contracts. NET SHORT for NZD forsaken -922 contracts final week, with both suppositional prolonged and shorts position increasing final week. NET SHORT for CAD futures declined +8 203 contracts to 39 571.
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Crude Oil Forecast – Crude Oil May be Overextended, But Watch Out For Trade Headlines
Crude oil prices sojourn upheld by supply cuts and trade understanding hopes even as a mercantile information have proven disappointing. That support could decline a small this week
British Pound Forecast – GBP/USD Rate Threatens Bull Trend Ahead of Brexit Deadline
The British Pound may face a some-more bearish predestine forward of a Brexit deadline in Apr as the GBP/USD exchange rate threatens a ceiling trend from late final year
US Dollar Forecast – US Dollar May Rise as Sentiment Succumbs to Potent Headwinds
The US Dollar might rise, spurned on by haven-seeking collateral flows as risk ardour finally succumbs to a extended collection of manly headwinds.
Gold Forecast – Gold Price Outlook Bearish as USD May Rise on Soft Econ Data, RBA
Gold prices could be weighed down if a US Dollar rises in risk hatred on soothing mercantile data. Other hazards for a changed steel embody a some-more dovish RBA and Brexit updates
Equities Forecast – Dow Jones, FTSE 100, DAX 30 and ASX 200 Fundamental Forecast
The Dow Jones will demeanour to a slew of mercantile information out of a United States while a FTSE and DAX wait Brexit clarification. Elsewhere, a ASX 200 awaits a rate preference from a RBA.
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Crude Oil Forecast– Crude Oil Prices Edge to 5-Month High, Doesn’t Feel Like a ‘Breakout’
US wanton oil prices sealed out this past week with a clarity of swell that varies according to what time support we evaluate. While a entertain (Q1) was extraordinary, a lift over into subsequent week alone looks some-more tepid.
British Pound Forecast –No Brexit Deal- Pound Losses Mount
Sterling is set to tighten only above upslope support as a relapse in Brexit negotiations import on price. These are a levels that matter on a GBP/USD weekly chart.
US Dollar Forecast – USD Starting to Look Exhausted
The new collection of bad US information prints have been brushed aside by a resurgent US dollar in a past few days, though a new pull aloft looks like it is using out of steam.
Gold Forecast – Gold Price Outlook Bearish in Long Run, Eying Support in Near Term
Gold prices resolved another month reduce as a bearish annulment settlement formed, hinting of a tip in a long-run. For now, a changed steel faces vicious support that competence hold.
Euro Forecast –Breakdown Potential for Q2
EURUSD has spent 5 months in a operation by a series of Euro-drivers. But with overbought sell view and bears persisting, competence a mangle be in store for Q2?
Equity Forecast – Dow Jones Eyes Breakout, FTSE 100 in Brexit Limbo
The Dow Jones and FTSE 100 posted considerable gains over a final week of a initial quarter, though where are a US and UK equity markets streamer next?
ECB Governing Council member Klass Knot told German journal Handelsblatt that there has been a “cooling off” in a economy. But he emphasized there is “no retrogression or crisis”. Robust direct and salary expansion in Eurozone meaned expansion would collect adult again soon. He, as famous hawk, stays in preference of process normalization ahead.
Knot also saw TLTRO III as a “bridge” to “ease transition to marketplace financing. That is, a new programs conditions will be “less fitting than before”. He remarkable that ECB should equivocate a need on TLTRO IV or V in a few year’s time.
Italy Economy Minister Giovanni Tria pronounced on Sunday that “Italy has been flourishing in a final 10 years by 1 commission indicate reduction than the European peers, and we are going tighten to 0 as Germany will post a 0.7-0.8 percent increase”.
And for Italy, he pronounced “it would be absurd to exercise limiting measures; for certain we don’t have space for any expanded mercantile measures.”
Official China PMI prolongation rose to 50.5 in March, adult from 49.2 and kick expectancy of 49.6. That’s firstly a largest monthly arise given 2012. Secondly, it’s also a top turn in 6 months. The alleviation from February’s 3-yer low suggests stabilization in a slack in a sector. PMI non-manufacturing rose to 54.8, adult from 54.3, and kick expectancy of 54.5 too.
In a release, it’s remarkable a alleviation stemmed from post Chinese New Year prolongation liberation and outcome of expansion stabilization policies. However, altogether liberation in marketplace direct is still not apparent. Export orders rebounded while expectations also improved. The certain signals from Sino-US trade negotiations have begun to take effect.
But overall, a matter remarkable that a stream economy is still in a “critical duration of stabilization and recovery”. And, it is required to “further connect and raise certainty recovery, and to revive marketplace direct and stabilise mercantile growth.
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Full recover here.