Month: February 2019

Further GBPUSD Gains Likely Limited Near-Term

GBP cost research and outlook:

  • GBPUSD has been rising within an upward-sloping channel on a charts.
  • However, a postponement now seems expected before a stand resumes.

GBPUSD allege using out of steam

The GBPUSD cost has been strengthening for scarcely dual weeks now as fears that a UK will leave a EU but a Brexit understanding have receded. However, a postponement is now probable before a convene extends higher. As a hourly draft subsequent shows, a span is already anticipating it tough to make a poignant mangle above a 1.33 level.

GBPUSD Price Chart, Hourly Timeframe (February 15-28, 2019)

Latest GBPUSD cost chart.

Chart by IG (You can click on it for a incomparable image)

Moreover, a trendline fasten a new aloft highs is now around 1.3385 and a cost will have to mangle by it before reaching a subsequent critical psychological turn of 1.34. In addition, a daily draft shows a span stalled only above a 1.34 turn on several unbroken days behind in Jun 2018, adding to a insurgency there.

On a other hand, a downside is now good protected, with a raft of relocating averages sitting subsequent a stream price. Note too that a RSI on a draft above is no longer during a 70 turn signifying a span has been overbought and that there is still a bullish vigilance from a retail merchant view data.

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— Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

Feel giveaway to hit me around a comments territory below, around email during martin.essex@ig.com or on Twitter @MartinSEssex

EURUSD Short-term Chart Wedging Towards a Resolution

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EURUSD 4-hr rising crowd set to lead to cost movement

Euro sensitivity has been low of late to contend a least, with ranges of varying time-frames rivaling those behind in 2014 when sensitivity was during a chronological extreme. While these conditions could insist for some while longer, there will be short-term pockets of opportunity.

The rising crowd on a 4-hr draft suggests we are on a verge of movement. It has a visual demeanour to it given a context of a generally diseased trend. However, this doesn’t meant EURUSD won’t mangle aloft out of a pattern, that is because we need to wait.

There are 3 ways we see this presumably personification out. The simplest unfolding is for a mangle of a reduce trend-line creation adult a crowd and afterwards a purify dive towards a 11200-mark or worse could be on a way. However, during a time of this essay (still a integrate of hours until a 2pm GMT 4-hr candle closes) a second, though somewhat some-more formidable scenario, is looking increasingly likely.

It involves a dermatitis to a upside into trend-line insurgency from final month (again if a 4-hr candle closes outward a pattern), followed by a disaster behind by a bottom-side trend-line of a rising crowd formation. This would be a ‘head-fake’ trade, where a marketplace gets sucked in prolonged afterwards carrying a carpet yanked out from underneath.

The third unfolding is that we see a top-side mangle and run by trend-line resistance. This is noticed as a many formidable of a 3 scenarios to govern as it would need shopping a banking that has not been kind to traders holding a.) breakout-style trades and b.) bullish set-ups.

We are really nearby anticipating out that one of these will play out, and during a really slightest an uptick in sensitivity looks to be around a bend. While one of a above scenarios competence not spin out to be appealing, aloft sensitivity could during slightest move with it a now variable event in a nearby future.

Check out a longer-term EURUSD foresee in a DailyFX Euro Forecast.

EURUSD 4-hr Chart (Wedge mangle scenarios)

EURUSD 4-hr chart, crowd mangle scenarios

***Updates will be supposing on these ideas and others in a trading/technical opinion webinars hold on Tuesday and Friday. If we are looking for ideas and feedback on how to urge your altogether proceed to trading, join me on Thursday any week for a Becoming a Better Trader webinar series.

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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter during @PaulRobinsonFX

US Dollar Gains on GDP Data, GBPUSD Losses May be Fleeting

GBPUSD Price and US Q4 GDP:

  • US Q4 2018 GDP beats expectations though Q1 2019 expansion expected to slow.
  • Sterling converging forward of renewed upside move.

Q1 2019 GBP and USD Forecasts and Top Trading Opportunities

GBPUSD is subsidy off in early NY turnover after US Q4 GDP kick marketplace expectations – 2.6% vs 2.2% – giving a greenback a tiny bid. The US information showed that business investment and private expenditure remained organisation with a pointy arise in egghead skill rights (13.1%) assisting to fuel a uplift. However new bad US tough data, including December’s shockingly diseased sell sales, indicate to a negligence US economy and today’s imitation might be a best for some quarters, signaling a softer greenback in a weeks ahead.

On a left-hand side of GBPUSD, Sterling continues to pull aloft as No Deal Brexit concerns dissipate. No organisation developments have nonetheless been motionless or during slightest disclosed, reigning in a British Pound, though serve upside looks a trail of slightest resistance. Today’s short-term reversal in a span could continue behind down to a cluster of supports between 1.3220 (January 25 high) and 1.3177 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) though serve waste from here will expected need a disastrous Brexit title to give a pierce momentum. The new pierce above a Sep 20 high around 1.3300 needs to be sealed above to supplement acknowledgment to serve upside moves. The RSI indicator is in overbought territory, after a new convene from a Feb 14 low around 1.2770 and should be respected.

Further GBPUSD Gains Likely Limited Near-Term.

GBPUSD Daily Price Chart (February 2018 – Feb 28, 2019)

US Dollar Gains on GDP Data, GBPUSD Losses May be Fleeting

Retail traders are 45.3% net-long GBPUSD according to a latest IC Client Sentiment Data, a bullish contrarian indicator. Recent changes in daily and weekly perspective however give us a mixed trading disposition for GBPUSD.Weekly short-positions are 35.7% aloft than final week, as sell clearly sell into a new rally.

Traders might be meddlesome in dual of a trade guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are expected to be meddlesome in a latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your perspective on GBPUSD – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know around a form during a finish of this square or we can hit a author during nicholas.cawley@ig.comor around Twitter @nickcawley1.

Gold Price Forecast: Bullish Momentum Unravels Following US GDP Report

Gold Talking Points

The cost for bullion slips to a uninformed weekly-low ($1317) as a U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) news shakes adult a opinion for financial policy, and a unsuccessful try to exam a 2018-high ($1366) might beget a incomparable improvement in a changed steel as a bullish movement starts to unravel.

Image of daily change for vital currencies

Gold Price Forecast: Bullish Momentum Unravels Following US GDP Report

Image of daily change for bullion prices

Gold is behind underneath vigour as uninformed updates to a U.S. GDP news uncover a enlargement rate expanding 2.6% in a fourth-quarter of 2018 contra projections for a 2.2% print, and a developments might lean a opinion for financial process as a core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), a Federal Reserve’s elite sign for inflation, suddenly climbs to 1.7% from 1.6% per annum during a three-months by September.

The certain growth might inspire Fed officials to fist in a rate-hike after this year as cycle as a executive bank pledges to be ‘data dependent,’ yet a ongoing change in trade process might inspire a flourishing array of Fed officials to adjust a Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) during a subsequent assembly in Mar as U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer warns that ‘much still needs to be finished before an agreement can be reached’ with China.

Image of fed change sheet

In turn, a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) might continue to change a change over a entrance months amid a ‘crosscurrents’ clouding a mercantile outlook, and a stronger-than-expected GDP imitation might do small to revitalise a hawkish forward-guidance for financial process as Chairman Jerome Powellwarns of ‘muted’ inflation. In fact, it seems as yet a FOMC is preparing to finish a $50B/month in quantitative tightening (QT) as Chairman Powell states that ‘the Committee can now weigh a suitable timing and proceed for a finish of change piece runoff, and a change in a financial process opinion might continue to worsen a seductiveness of bullion as a executive bank appears to abandoning a hiking-cycle.

With that said, a broader opinion for bullion stays constructive, yet a changed steel might theatre a incomparable pullback over a entrance days as a bull-flag appears to have run a course. At a same time, new developments in a Relative Strength Index (RSI) advise a bullish movement will continue uncover as it falls behind from overbought domain and snaps a ceiling trend from late-last year. Sign adult and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an event to plead intensity trade setups.

Gold Daily Chart

Image of bullion daily chart

  • Lack of movement to exam a 2018-high ($1366) might hint a incomparable improvement in gold, with a new growth lifting a risk for a serve decrease as a cost for bullion triggers a array of reduce highs lows.
  • In turn, a tighten subsequent a $1315 (23.6% retracement) to $1316 (38.2% expansion) segment brings a former-resistance section around $1298 (23.6% retracement) to $1302 (50% retracement) on a radar, with a subsequent segment of seductiveness entrance in around $1279 (38.2% retracement) to $1288 (23.6% expansion).

For some-more in-depth analysis, check out a 1Q 2019 Forecast for Gold

Additional Trading Resources

Are we looking to urge your trade approach? Review a ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ array on how to effectively use precedence along with other best practices that any merchant can follow.

Want to know what other markets a DailyFX group is watching? Download and examination a Top Trading Opportunities for 2019.

— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter during @DavidJSong.

NZD/USD Technical Price Outlook: Kiwi Consolidation Narrows

The New Zealand Dollar pennyless next a weekly opening-range low after branch from operation insurgency yesterday and stays during risk for serve waste opposite a US Dollar streamer into a Mar open. These are a updated targets and cancellation levels that matter on a NZD/USD charts. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth relapse of this setup and more.

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NZD/USD Daily Price Chart

NZD/USD Price Chart - New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar Daily

Technical Outlook: In my latest NZD/USD Weekly Technical Outlook we remarkable that Kiwi had, “carved out an even clearer operation between 6707-6941 and a concentration streamer into a tighten of a month is on a mangle of this range.” Price posted a annulment candle off a yearly high-day tighten at 6890 yesterday with movement unwell forward of a 60-threshold (typically bearish).

Daily support is eyed during a connection of a 100 200-day relocating averages during 6750/56 corroborated by a 61.8% retracement of a yearly operation / 2018 trendline support during ~6722 (area of seductiveness for probable depletion / prolonged entries IF reached). A tighten next 6700 would countenance a mangle of a 2019 converging operation with such a unfolding exposing 6633. Key insurgency / broader bearish cancellation solid during 6922/31.

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NZD/USD 120min Price Chart

NZD/USD Price Chart - New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar 120min

Notes: A closer demeanour during cost movement shows Kiwi branch rom a median-line of an forward pitchfork formation fluctuating off a yearly lows with an embedded forward arrangement gripping a concentration reduce while next 6861. Initial insurgency stands during 6813 with near-term connection support yeed during 6785/90– a mangle next this turn is indispensable to keep a short-bias viable targeting successive objectives at 6750/56 and 6722.

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Bottom line:NZD/USD has incited from operation insurgency with a decrease now targeting near-term connection support. From a trade standpoint, we’re looking for a greeting on pierce reduce towards a reduce together with a mangle next indispensable to keep evident concentration lower. I’ll preference vanishing strength while next 6843 targeting a downside mangle – ultimately, be on a surveillance for depletion on a pierce towards 6700 IF reached.

For a finish relapse of Michael’s trade strategy, examination his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

NZD/USD Trader Sentiment

NZD/USD Trader Sentiment

  • A outline of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long NZD/USD – a ratio stands during +1.12 (52.9% of traders are long) – neutral reading
  • Long positions are6.9% reduce than yesterday and 2.2% aloft from final week
  • Short positions are 11.6% reduce than yesterday and 13.2% aloft from final week
  • We typically take a contrarian perspective to throng sentiment, and a fact traders are net-long suggests NZD/USD prices might continue to fall. Yet traders are more net-long than yesterday though reduction net-long from final week and the multiple of stream positioning and new changes gives us a serve churned NZD/USD trade disposition from a view standpoint.

See how shifts in NZD/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn some-more about sentiment!

Relevant NZD/USD Data Releases

NZD/USD - New Zealand / US Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendarlatest economic developments and upcoming event risk. Learn some-more about how we Trade a News in a Free Guide!

Active Trade Setups

– Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

EURUSD: Overnight Implied Volatility Jumps Ahead of Friday’s Data

EURUSD Implied Volatility – Talking Points:

  • EURUSD overnight sensitivity has scarcely doubled given final Friday as banking traders prepared for Eurozone and U.S. mercantile information slated for recover tomorrow
  • Spot prices have coiled into a rising crowd settlement that looks prepared to mangle into a new trend with a instruction expected commanded by a information on rug
  • Download a Free 1Q 2019 EUR Forecast to see where DailyFX analysts consider this pivotal marketplace competence be headed

Tomorrow’s event looks to be a flighty one for EURUSD traders with pivotal Eurozone and U.S. mercantile information due for release. Judging by a 1-Day (1D) pragmatic sensitivity labelled on a banking pair’s overnight options contract, trade levels should operation between 1.1355 and 1.1431. Current mark EURUSD is 1.1379.

EURUSD IMPLIED VOLATILITY PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (OCTOBER 01, 2018 TO FEBRUARY 28, 2019)

EURUSD: Overnight Implied Volatility Jumps Ahead of Friday's Data

Overnight pragmatic sensitivity has scarcely doubled given final Friday from a small 3.4 percent to 6.4 percent as forex traders prepared for potentially sizeable cost moves in a EUR and USD. At a same time, a banking span marched roughly 0.8 percent aloft from a low of 1.1316 before pulling behind modestly from today’s high of 1.1420.

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EURUSD ECONOMIC CALENDAR

EURUSD: Overnight Implied Volatility Jumps Ahead of Friday's Data

With Eurozone acceleration and stagnation rates set for recover during 10:00 GMT, these market-moving indicators could send a Euro aloft if information is reportedbetter than consensus. Alternatively, a banking could come underneath vigour fast if concerns over a EU’s mercantile slack wear in response a diseased print.

Check out DailyFX’s giveaway Economic Calendarfor a full list of data releases and mercantile events that impact USD, GBP, CAD, JPY, AUD, CNY, EUR, CHF, NZD and MXN markets.

Also, core personal expenditure expenditures and a ISM’s production index are scheduled to cranky a wires during 13:30 GMT and 15:00 GMT respectively with these metrics likely warranting a greeting in a USD.

Following today’s not-so-bad GDP numbers that kick estimates, serve justification of a healthy US economy may put a Federal Reserve behind in a prohibited chair over seductiveness rates. This could means a US Dollar to locate bid if rate travel expectations start to arise if markets start pricing a data-dependent Fed transition from a studious wait-and-see proceed behind to a position of tightening.

EURUSD CURRENCY PRICE CHART: 4-HOUR TIME FRAME (FEBRUARY 11, 2019 TO FEBRUARY 28, 2019)

EURUSD: Overnight Implied Volatility Jumps Ahead of Friday's Data

The rising crowd settlement shaped over a second half of this month has pushed a Euro-Dollar cranky into a parsimonious curl where prices demeanour set to mangle out above trend insurgency or subsequent trend support. Consequently, is expected that tomorrow’s mercantile information will foreordain a forex pair’s subsequent direction.

FOREX MARKET IMPLIED VOLATILITY AND TRADING RANGES

EURUSD: Overnight Implied Volatility Jumps Ahead of Friday's Data

Take a demeanour during IG’s real-time Client Positioning Sentiment Tracker to see a bullish and bearish biases of EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, Gold, Bitcoin, and SP500 traders.

Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX

Follow on Twitter @RichDvorakFX




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