GBPUSD Analysis: Bullish ’Golden Cross’ Taking Shape

Sterling and GBPUSD:

  • Moving normal crossover might fuel renewed GBPUSD bullish sentiment.
  • Prior ‘Death Cross’ foretold GBPUSD sell-off.

See how a Q1 2019 Trading Forecast for GBP can assistance we when trading.

GBPUSD Chart Eyes Potential Upside Momentum

A closely followed technical indicator is combining on a daily GBPUSD draft and may replenish bullish perspective in a pair.

A ‘Golden Cross’ on a draft is a bullish indicator and occurs when short-term relocating normal breaks above a longer-term average, highlighting certain marketplace sentiment. On a draft below, a 20-dma has only damaged a 200-dma and if a 50-dma also breaks above a longer-term normal – around 2 cents divided – bullish perspective will be refuelled. While not a pledge of aloft prices, if a crossover does occur, and is reliable with aloft trade volume, it should prompt serve certain sentiment. The initial aim lies during 1.300 forward of1.3406 – 50% Fibonacci retracement – before a 61.8% retracement turn during 1.3635 comes into focus.

The draft also shows a cost movement after a ‘Death Cross’ – a conflicting of a Golden Cross – occurred in mid-2018 with GBPUSD descending from around 1.3600 to 1.2435 over a six-month period.

Elsewhere on a chart, GBPUSD trades absolutely above a 200-dma, providing initial support around 1.2970, with delegate support seen during 1.2894, a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.

Retail traders are net-short of GBPUSD – 47.4% – according to a IG Retail Sentiment Indicator. See what this means and how it can assistance we make improved sensitive trade decisions.

GBPUSD Daily Price Chart (January 2018 – Jan 31, 2019)

GBPUSD Analysis: Bullish 'Golden Cross' Taking Shape

Traders might be meddlesome in dual of a trade guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are expected to be meddlesome in a latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your perspective on GBPUSD – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know around a form during a finish of this square or we can hit a author during nicholas.cawley@ig.comor around Twitter @nickcawley1.

Euro Eases Gently After Poor Eurozone GDP Data, Italy in Recession

EUR price, news and analysis:

  • Eurozone GDP expansion in a fourth entertain of 2018 was unvaried from Q3’s 0.2% boost quarter/quarter, staying during a lowest rate in 4 years.
  • Italian GDP information showed a nation is now in a technical recession.
  • The Euro eased somewhat on a total yet continues to be driven predominantly by events in a US and by a Brexit negotiations between a UK and a EU.

Euro slips on Eurozone GDP data

Economic expansion in a Eurozone was only 0.2% quarter/quarter in a fourth entertain of final year according to rough “flash” data. That was a same expansion rate as in a third entertain and was in line with expectations, display expansion stranded during a lowest rate in 4 years.

Meanwhile in Italy GDP engaged by 0.2% quarter/quarter in Q4 after a 0.1% tumble in Q3, putting Italy into a technical recession.

In response, EURUSD slipped back, as did a Euro opposite a British Pound, Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc.

EURUSD Price Chart, Five-Minute Timeframe (January 30-31, 2019)

Latest EURUSD cost draft after Eurozone GDP.

Chart by IG (You can click on it for a incomparable image)

Looking forward though, a Euro will approaching be driven predominantly by events in a US. As a draft above shows, EURUSD jumped late Wednesday after some-more dovish than approaching comments from a Federal Open Market Committee. The Fed kept US seductiveness rates unchanged, as expected, yet also signaled a intensity finish to rate hikes.

As for EURGBP, that will approaching be driven mostly by a Brexit negotiations between a EU and a UK.

More to read:

Using News and Events to Trade Forex

The DailyFX Economic Calendar

Eurozone Debt Crisis Timeline

Resources to assistance we trade a forex markets:

Whether we are a new or an gifted trader, during DailyFX we have many resources to assistance you:

— Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

Feel giveaway to hit me around a comments territory below, around email during martin.essex@ig.com or on Twitter @MartinSEssex

Gold Price Analysis: Fed Capitulation & Central Bank Buying Spree Maintains Bullish Outlook

Gold Price Analysis and Talking Points:

  • Fed Capitulation as Doves are Set Free
  • Central Bank Gold Buying Provides Fundamental Support
  • Outlook Bullish, However, Technical Hurdles May Hold for Now

See a quarterly bullion forecast to learn what will expostulate prices throughout Q1!

Fed Capitulation as Doves are Set Free

The Federal Reserve doves have been set giveaway following yesterday’s rate preference and Powell’s presser. Gold prices pushed higher, attack highs of $1323 following a decision, in that a executive bank reemphasised calm per rate hikes, carrying private light rate hikes from a guidance. Consequently, markets have now called a finish to a rate hiking cycle, however, what is maybe some-more engaging is that a Fed highlighted that they are prepared to adjust a sum for completing a change piece normalisation in light of mercantile and financial developments. As such, this suggests that a Fed could hindrance their change piece tell progressing than expected. What has been done apparent given a final Fed assembly is that markets are indeed dictating financial policy.

Central Bank Gold Buying Provides Fundamental Support

Alongside a Fed U-turn in financial policy, bullion has also found elemental support from a shopping debauch by executive banks. The World Gold Council recently reported that executive banks had been shopping bullion during a strongest gait in over 50yrs via 2018, with purchases amounting to 15% of bullion demand. In turn, given that a risks to a tellurian mercantile opinion continues to lean to a downside, executive bank direct for bullion might continue to yield underlying support to a changed metal.

Outlook Bullish, However, Technical Hurdles May Hold for Now

While we sojourn bullish on a gold, brief tenure indicators continue to vigilance a intensity pullback. The RSI on a daily-time support confirms a disastrous divergence, while stays in overbought territory, while a on a weeklies, a RSI has pushed into a overbought zone. Having damaged above $1318, eyes are now on for a insurgency during $1325/oz (May 2018). A shutting mangle above however, increases range for a exam of $1360 in a longer term.

What You Need to Know About a Gold Market

GOLD PRICE CHART: Daily Time-Frame (Apr 2018-Jan 2019)

Gold Price Analysis: Fed Capitulation amp; Central Bank Buying Spree Maintains Bullish Outlook

Chart by IG

GOLD TRADING RESOURCES:

— Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To hit Justin, email him during Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

US Crude Oil Price Benefiting From Venezuela Crisis, Stockpiles Data

US wanton oil price, news and analysis:

  • The US wanton oil cost has been rising given late Dec and could allege serve as Washington imposes sanctions on Venezuela’s state oil company.
  • News of a smaller than approaching build in US wanton stockpiles is also potentially certain for a price.

US wanton oil cost might extend a gains

The cost of US wanton oil has been rising given attack a low of $42.63/barrel on Dec 26 final year and could good extend a gains.

Helping prices aloft this week have been a US administration’s preference to levy sanctions opposite Venezuela’s state-owned oil association PDVSA that could branch a upsurge of oil from a nation that is in domestic misunderstanding and now has dual presidents.

In addition, a American Petroleum Institute has reported a wanton oil register build of 2.098 million barrels in a week finale Jan 25, compared to analysts’ expectations of a most incomparable increase in wanton oil stockpiles of 7.97 million barrels.

US Crude Oil Price Chart, Daily Timeframe (October 2, 2018 – Jan 31, 2019)

Latest US wanton oil cost chart.

Chart by IG (You can click on it for a incomparable image)

These total were corroborated by central numbers from a US Energy Information Administration display a arise in inventories of only 919,000 barrels over a same period, good next a 3.15 million boost predicted.

That could lead to a stand behind to a $55/barrel turn overwhelmed quickly Wednesday and potentially most aloft as a ceiling trend continues.

Resources to assistance we trade a forex markets:

Whether we are a new or an gifted trader, during DailyFX we have many resources to assistance you:

— Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

Feel giveaway to hit me around a comments territory below, around email during martin.essex@ig.com or on Twitter @MartinSEssex

EURUSD Curbed during Resistance, NFP Unlikely to Spark Volatility

MARKET DEVELOPMENT – USD SOFTER ON DOVISH FED, JPY IN DEMAND

USD: The US Dollar is softer, alongside US yields following yesterday’s dovish FOMC meeting. The wait-and-see position is in outcome with a Powell and Co. signalling that they will be studious with courtesy to rate hikes. More importantly, a Fed reliable that they will be stretchable with their change piece normalisation process. While a marketplace opinion is uncertain, if there is anything that is certain, is that tellurian markets are now dictating Fed policy. High-beta FX (AUD, NZD) and EMFX sojourn upheld on Fed process U-Turn.

EUR: Advances in a Euro has been tempered by a 1.15 hoop to trade comparatively flat, with a banking mostly undeterred by another slew of soothing mercantile information points. Italy’s Q4 GDP reliable that they have changed into a technical recession, despite to no-one’s surprise. However, this might shortly start to re-ignite concerns over a bill necessity and Italy’s confident expansion forecasts. Elsewhere, sizeable FX options are expected to keep a Euro comparatively contained, while choice markets indicate that tomorrow’s NFP will miss of sensitivity with breakeven straddles during 41pips.

JPY: The JPY among a outperformers this morning with USDJPY creation a mangle next 109.00, while cranky offered in vital pairs opposite a JPY has supposing a serve bid in a safe-haven currency. Eyes now are on for a exam of 108.00.

Gold: Gold behind in foster following a aforementioned Fed capitulation, while executive bank shopping also underpinned a bullish opinion for a changed metal. Thus far, a May 2018 high during $1325 is proof tough to moment for now. Longer tenure targets are for a pierce towards $1360.

EURUSD Curbed during Resistance, NFP Unlikely to Spark Volatility - US Market Open

DailyFX Economic Calendar: – North American Releases

EURUSD Curbed during Resistance, NFP Unlikely to Spark Volatility - US Market Open

IG Client Sentiment

EURUSD Curbed during Resistance, NFP Unlikely to Spark Volatility - US Market Open

How to use IG Client Sentiment to Improve Your Trading

Four Things Traders are Reading

  1. DAX 30 CAC 40 Charts: Channels Keeping Bullish Bias Intact (for Now)” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
  2. US Crude Oil Price Benefiting From Venezuela Crisis, Stockpiles Data” by Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst and Editor
  3. Gold Price Analysis: Fed Capitulation Central Bank Buying Spree Maintains Bullish Outlook” by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
  4. GBPUSD Analysis: Bullish ’Golden Cross’ Taking Shape” by Nick Cawley, Market Analyst

— Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To hit Justin, email him during Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

USD/CAD Bear-Flag Continues to Unfold as Fed Drops Hawkish Guidance

Canadian Dollar Talking Points

USD/CAD trades to a creatively monthly-low (1.3119) as a Federal Reserve removes a hawkish forward-guidance for financial policy, and a sell rate stands during risk for a incomparable improvement as a bear-flag arrangement unfolds.

Image of daily change for vital currencies

USD/CAD Bear-Flag Continues to Unfold as Fed Drops Hawkish Guidance

Image of daily change for usdcad rates

Fresh remarks from a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) advise a benchmark seductiveness rate will lay during a stream operation of 2.25% to 2.50% even yet U.S. New Home Sales jumps 16.9% in November, and a Fed might start to finish a $50B/month in quantitative tightening (QT) as officials note that ‘the normalization of a distance of a portfolio will be finished sooner, and with a incomparable change sheet, than in prior estimates.’

The Bank of Canada (BoC) might follow a identical trail to a U.S. reflection amid a weakening opinion for a tellurian economy, and a executive bank might incomparable validate a wait-and-see proceed a subsequent assembly on Mar 6 as a executive bank’s ‘revised foresee reflects a proxy negligence in a fourth entertain of 2018 and a initial entertain of 2019.’

Image of BoC seductiveness rate

Governor Stephen Poloz might sound less-hawkish over a entrance months as ‘CPI acceleration is projected to corner serve down and be subsequent 2 per cent by most of 2019,’ though it stays to be seen if a BoC will mislay a hawkish forward-guidance as a ‘Governing Council continues to decider that a process seductiveness rate will need to arise over time.’ With that said, a stream sourroundings might encourage a incomparable improvement in USD/CAD as a BoC continues to ready Canadian households and businesses for aloft borrowing-costs, and new cost movement raises a risk for a serve debasement in a sell rate as bear-flag arrangement unfolds.Sign adult and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an event to plead intensity trade setups.

USD/CAD Daily Chart

Image of usdcad daily chart

  • Keep in mind, broader opinion for USD/CAD stays constructive following a mangle of a June-high (1.3386), though a unsuccessful attempts to tighten above a 1.3630 (38.2% retracement) to 1.3660 (78.6% expansion) segment raises a risk for a incomparable improvement as both cost a RSI snap a bullish formations from October.
  • The new decrease appears to be stalling forward of a 200-Day SMA (1.3117), though a tighten subsequent 1.3130 (61.8% retracement) opens adult a Fibonacci overlie around 1.2980 (61.8% retracement) to 1.3030 (50% expansion), with a subsequent area of seductiveness entrance in around 1.2830 (38.2% retracement).

Additional Trading Resources

Are we looking to urge your trade approach? Review a ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ array on how to effectively use precedence along with other best practices that any merchant can follow.

Want to know what other banking pairs a DailyFX group is watching? Download and examination a Top Trading Opportunities for 2019.

— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter during @DavidJSong.