EUR/USD Price Outlook: Euro Fails during 1.15

Euro is melancholy a four-day winning strain opposite a US Dollar with a new cost convene unwell during a 1.15-handle currently in New York. The evident hazard is reduce near-term, though a broader opinion stays constructive and we’re looking for a pullback to offer some-more auspicious opportunities. These are a updated targets and cancellation levels that matter on a EUR/USD charts. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth relapse of this setup and more.

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EUR/USD Daily Price Chart

EUR/USD Price Chart - Euro vs US Dollar Daily

Technical Outlook: In my latest EUR/USD Technical Price Outlook we remarkable that a pullback was, ‘approaching monthly up-trend support only reduce and IF cost is streamer higher, Euro would need to reason above slope support.” A brief army subsequent pitchfork support saw a exam of a Dec low-day tighten during 1.1303 before reversing neatly on Jan 25th with a allege now contrast a monthly high-day tighten during 1.15. A tighten above this threshold is indispensable to fuel a subsequent leg aloft targeting a high-close during 1.1542 corroborated by a 200-day relocating normal and a 61.8% retracement of a 2018 operation during 1.1586.

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EUR/USD 120min Price Chart

EUR/USD Price Chart - Euro vs US Dollar 120min

Notes: A closer demeanour during cost movement uncover EUR/USD trade within a proportions of an descending channel arrangement fluctuating off a monthly lows with cost Euro branch only pips from slope insurgency today. Initial support now rests behind during monthly / yearly open during 1.1449/50 corroborated closely by a reduce together – a mangle there would advise a incomparable improvement is underway with such a unfolding exposing a weekly open during a 1.14-handle (near-term bullish invalidation). Resistance stays during 1.15 with a crack above a weekly range-highs targeting a highlighted insurgency connection during 1.1542.

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Bottom line: The evident risk is reduce in cost though IF Euro is indeed streamer higher, waste should be singular to a 1.14-handle. From a trade standpoint, I’m looking for downside depletion on a pierce reduce to offer some-more auspicious long-entries while above 1.1350 targeting a yearly high-close. Review my EUR/USD Weekly Technical Outlook for a demeanour during a longer-term trade levels streamer into a tighten of a month.

For a finish relapse of Michael’s trade strategy, examination his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

EUR/USD Trader Sentiment

EUR/USD Trader Sentiment

  • A outline of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short EUR/USD – a ratio stands during -1.2 (45.5% of traders are long) – bullishreading
  • Long positions are13.2% reduce than yesterday and 35.7% reduce from final week
  • Short positions are 7.6% aloft than yesterday and 47.5% aloft from final week
  • We typically take a contrarian perspective to throng sentiment, and a fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices might continue to rise. Traders are serve net-short than yesterday final week, and a multiple of stream positioning and new changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bullish contrarian trade bias from a view standpoint.

See how shifts in EUR/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn some-more about sentiment!

Relevant EUR/USD Data Releases

EUR/USD Economic Calendar

Economic Calendarlatest economic developments and upcoming event risk. Learn some-more about how we Trade a News in a Free Guide!

Active Trade Setups

– Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

AUD/USD Flash-Crash Rebound Eyes December-High Ahead of RBA

Australian Dollar Talking Points

AUD/USD climbs to uninformed monthly highs as a Federal Reserve’s drops a hawkish forward-guidance for financial policy, and new cost movement raises a risk for a incomparable flash-crash miscarry as a Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaks out of a bearish arrangement from late-2018.

Image of daily change for vital currencies

AUD/USD Flash-Crash Rebound Eyes December-High Ahead of RBA

Image of daily change for audusd rate

AUD/USD appears to be on lane to exam a December-high (0.7394) forward of a Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) initial assembly for 2019 as a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) seductiveness rate preference triggers a selloff in a U.S. dollar.

Image of rba executive money rate

Like a Fed, a RBA is widely approaching to keep a stream process on Feb 5 amid a doubt surrounding a tellurian economy, and some-more of a same from Governor Philip Lowe Co. might clap a aussie-dollar sell rate as a executive bank appears to in no rush to lift a executive money rate (OCR) off of a record-low.

In fact, a stickiness in Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) might do small to pierce a RBA amid a mangle opinion for tellurian growth, and a executive bank might eventually uncover a incomparable eagerness to keep a record-low seductiveness rate via 2019 as ‘the low turn of seductiveness rates is stability to support a Australian economy.’ With that said, comments from a RBA might furnish headwinds for a Australian dollar as a executive bank tames bets for an approaching rate-hike, though a flash-cash miscarry appears to be spurring a change in sell seductiveness as a throng flips net-short for a initial time given November.

Image of IG Client Sentiment for audusd

The IG Client Sentiment Report shows 47.4% of traders a now net-long AUD/USD compared to 52.6% on Janary 14, with a ratio of traders short to prolonged during 1.11 to 1. The commission of traders net-long is now a lowest given November 26 when AUD/USD traded nearby the 0.7220 area. The array of traders net-long is 12.5% reduce than yesterday and 26.8% reduce from final week, while a array of traders net-short is 4.8% reduce than yesterday and 25.0% aloft from final week.

The decrease in net-long seductiveness persists appears to be a law-breaker of profit-taking behavior, though a ongoing accumulation in net-short position warns of a broader change in sell view as a throng fades a flash-crash miscarry in AUD/USD. Keep in mind, a mangle of a monthly operation instills a constructive outlook, with a new array of aloft highs lows lifting a risk for a incomparable improvement generally as a Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaks out of a bearish arrangement carried over from November. Sign adult and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an event to plead intensity trade setups.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Image of audusd daily chart

  • Topside targets are still on a radar for AUD/USD as a RSI flashes a bullish signal, with a break/close above a 0.7320 (50% expansion) to 0.7340 (61.8% retracement) segment lifting a risk for a run during a December-high (0.7394), that lines adult with a 0.7400 (38.2% expansion) hurdle.
  • Next segment of seductiveness comes in around 0.7460 (23.6% retracement) followed by a Fibonacci overlie around 0.7500 (50% retracement) to 0.7510 (23.6% expansion).

Additional Trading Resources

Are we looking to urge your trade approach? Review a ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ array on how to effectively use precedence along with other best practices that any merchant can follow.

Want to know what other banking pairs a DailyFX group is watching? Download and examination a Top Trading Opportunities for 2019.

— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter during @DavidJSong.

Amazon Stock Price Edges Lower After Earnings Beat, Forecasts Miss

Amazon Stock Talking Points:

  • The online tradesman sealed Thursday’s event as a largest association by marketplace cap, surpassing Microsoft who missed on gain yesterday
  • While Q4 opening was strong, forecasts for a entrance entertain unhappy
  • Alphabet’s Google will news subsequent Monday to top off a FANG gain season

See Q1 2019 forecasts for a Dow, Dollar, Bitcoin and some-more with a DailyFX Trading Guides.

Amazon traded 3% aloft in a after-hours event Thursday following stellar fourth entertain gain formula though subsequently retraced as a news was investigated further. Revenue surfaced expectations, during $72.4 billion contra $71.61 billion. Similarly, gain per share tender with $6.04 compared to researcher forecasts of $5.59. The fourth entertain is typically a largest for Amazon due to a inclusion of a holiday selling season, nonetheless Q4 income noted a lowest expansion given Q1 2015. Still, a 19.7% boost was formidable.

In a statement, Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos commented on a holiday period. “Alexa was really bustling during her holiday season. Echo Dot was a best-selling object opposite all products on Amazon globally, and business purchased millions some-more inclination from a Echo family compared to final year.” Also contributing to a clever quarter, income from Amazon Web Services (AWS) augmenting significantly in a period.

According to Refinitiv, AWS Q4 income was $7.43 billion compared to a $7.3 accord guess from analysts. Increased income from AWS and other non-retail business have done poignant inroads into augmenting a firm’s margins that have been razor skinny historically. That said, Amazon’s profitability also augmenting during a period. Operating income for a entertain is approaching to be between $2.3 billion and $3.3 billion, adult from $1.9 billion in a same duration a year prior. While profitability has increased, Q1 forecasts left analysts unimpressed.

Amazon Stock Price (AMZN): (January 31, 2019) (Chart 1)

amazon batch price

Chart source: Marketwatch

First entertain income is approaching to be between $56 and $60 billion, somewhat reduce than researcher forecasts of $60.8 billion. The unsatisfactory total were expected to censure for a bad opening in Amazon’s share cost after-hours. Growth is of peerless significance for a tradesman that increase mostly on impossibly skinny margins and volume. Thus, reduce expansion expectations mostly consecrate a reappraisal of a firm’s value.

Still, Q4 gain were strong given a sensitivity in a batch marketplace heading adult to and during a holiday season. The opening is good adequate for a tradesman to say a pretension of a world’s many profitable house by marketplace cap. The association now boasts a aloft gratefulness than Apple and Microsoft, both of that reported gain progressing this week. The remaining aspirant and final FANG member to news gain this season, Google, will news on Monday.

SP 500 Price Chart: (January 2018 – Jan 31, 2019) (Chart 2)

stock marketplace cost

The altogether US equity marketplace enjoyed a widespread convene currently after swell was heralded in US-China trade talks. Specifically, a SP 500 rallied into a tighten after China’s Liu He announced a nation would buy 5 million tons of US soybeans per month. Talks between a dual nations are set to continue subsequent week.

–Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

Read more: Will a Stock Market Crash in 2019?

DailyFX forecasts on a accumulation of currencies such as a US Dollar or the Euro are accessible from a DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you’re looking to urge your trade approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you’re looking for an rudimentary authority to a Forex market, check out the New to FX Guide.

AUD extends ceiling pull and eyes pierce above 0.73 US cents

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Trading Lessons All Traders Should Know

Key Points Discussed in this interview

  • Financial markets and a information overload
  • The forward-looking inlet of technical research
  • Bitcoin Breakout and 2019 foresee
  • Alessio’s series one doctrine for trading

Trading Lessons All Traders Should Know - Alessio Rastani | Podcast

In this podcast talk Senior Analyst, Tyler Yell talks with Alessio Rastani. Alessio was named as one of a best crypto Youtubers of 2019 and is a batch marketplace and forex merchant who owns a site, Leading Trader. Alessio has amassed a faithfulness of thousands of traders with his honest and passionate proceed to trade a markets and his success has been fuelled by his enterprise to assistance others grow and achieve their possess trade goals.

This essay presents a highlights of a podcast so be certain to listen to a full talk below.

Listen to a full podcast here:



Google Play and SoundCloud links constructed during a finish of a article.

Financial markets and a information overload

Tyler Yell: You are a owner and CEO of Leading Trader, would we mind pity with us how this association got started and what desirous we to get it started?

Alessio Rastani: Back in 2009 we was doing a series of live seminars around a UK and people were constantly looking for information. However, a problem is not a miss of information though rather that there is proceed too most information online. The genuine plea is to try to interpret where a good information is. Markets are constantly elaborating and something that might have worked 20 years ago, might not request anymore.

My idea has always been to yield useful, arguable and honest information possibly in my videos, or on my site. What we cruise sets me detached is that we always assume that a spectator of my videos have no before trust of a subject and therefore, we try to explain concepts on a really elemental and elementary level. Additionally, if we make a prophecy in a marketplace we also behind this adult with chronological evidence, an indicator or speculation etc.

Trading Lessons All Traders Should Know - Alessio Rastani | Podcast

The forward-looking inlet of technical analysis

TY: Why do we cruise charting research is critical and useful for traders.

AR: Firstly, veteran traders and some of a best traders in a universe use it. If we have review a book from Jack Schwager called, ‘Market Wizards’ we will find out that Billion-dollar sidestep account managers and other successful traders, have done their fortunes with a assistance of technical analysis.

Secondly, a biggest critics of technical and draft research are people who contend it’s voodoo, or that we are simply usually witnessing pointless sound on a chart. They tend to trust that fundamentals are a usually proceed to investigate markets. we have zero opposite elemental analysis. The usually critique we have of elemental research is that it is behind looking – relying usually on fundamental research is like pushing a automobile while looking usually during a rearview mirror.

Bitcoin Breakout and 2019 forecast

TY: You have brought a lot of discernment into a crypto marketplace with your renouned YouTube videos; what developments have held your eye per bitcoin, both now and looking forward.

AR: I cruise 2019 is a year we could see a bottom in bitcoin. Recently I’ve seen mixed publications indicating that people have thrown in a towel when it comes to bitcoin. Traditionally, when publications get intensely disastrous on any market, we could substantially gamble that we are entrance flattering tighten to a bottom.

Trading Lessons All Traders Should Know - Alessio Rastani | Podcast

I cruise a bottom is some-more expected to seem in a second half of 2019 though there is one proviso, as prolonged as a economy does not tumble into a recession, bitcoin is going to be ok. If we do find ourselves in a recession, things could get most worse for bitcoin and other markets. People mostly cruise that in a retrogression that bullion goes adult – this is not indispensably true. If we demeanour behind to a retrogression of 2008, bullion mislaid a third of a value. This is since in a recession, stagnation rises, and people are mostly forced to drawdown their assets or money in their gold. Continuing with a same logic, if a retrogression takes hold, people might start cashing in their bitcoin.

Another indicate about bitcoin, we do cruise that it is illusive and illusive that we will proceed a high of $20 000 though it might take longer than people think. Of course, no one can contend for certain that it will strech $20 000 though it is likely, in my opinion. Therefore, even if Bitcoin reaches a bottom and starts a longhorn convene – it will take a prolonged time. When bitcoin appearance in 2013, it took a year and a half to get behind to that prior high that is also something we saw in bullion in 2011. Gold roughly reached $2000 and is nonetheless to proceed those levels again. It’s critical to remember that whenever any marketplace becomes a bubble, it’s common for these markets to take a substantial volume of time before those levels are re-tested.

TY: From a trade perspective, what astounded we in 2018 and what intensity developments do we cruise could make for a good trade sourroundings in 2019?

AR: First of all, we was astounded a SP didn’t arise to 3000 before a new correction. The large doubt now is possibly it will go behind to a Sep high before we have a vital bear market. Secondly, there was no Halloween effect, that is a materialisation in October/November where a batch marketplace practice clever moves to a upside. This could be seen as a warning pointer and was a warning pointer of what was to come in December.

As mentioned earlier, we cruise bitcoin is one to watch this year as so many people have incited opposite it, that leads me to cruise we could strech a bottom this year. Additionally, I’m examination a Pound Sterling with courtesy to Brexit and a wider probability that a UK withdrawal a EU could potentially be a start of a destruction of a Europe. we acknowledge that this might be a bit impassioned though it’s not unfit either.

I am also utterly bearish on a Euro (EUR/USD) as it has frequently tested support during 1.13 that is engaging since there is a proven speculation that the some-more mostly a marketplace comes down to exam support, a some-more expected it is that it will mangle by that support. This is something we saw in bitcoin when it forsaken mixed times to $6 000 after many unsuccessful rallies. we indeed done a mistake of not adhering to this order in 2018 and we subsequently saw bitcoin mangle proceed next $6 000.

Bitcoin (daily chart) contrast a $6000 level

Trading Lessons All Traders Should Know - Alessio Rastani | Podcast

Alessio’s series one doctrine for trading

The one doctrine we could learn to compute yourself from a rest (apart from a professionals who already know this) is that we should never dedicate yourself to one viewpoint or position. Remember that any research is formed on probabilities so never dedicate yourself to one position. You need to be stretchable since if a marketplace does something we do not design and moves opposite you, we need to be means to change your mind and cut your risk. Most veteran traders will tell we that as shortly as your strange perspective/analysis is proven to be incorrect, get a heck out.

This is because it is essential to have an exit strategy. Unless we are a prolonged tenure buy-and-hold merchant we should always have an exit strategy. Ask yourself if a draft is still revelation we what we believed one week ago? If it’s not, afterwards we should cruise removing out of a trade to revoke your risk tremendously. People might opposite this by seeking what happens if we get out of a trade and it afterwards moves in your favor. The answer is simple, we simply get behind into a trade. So, a categorical takeaway from this is: be flexible, be peaceful to accept when we are wrong, and revoke your risk.

Keep adult to date with a latest from Alessio Rastani:

Alessio’s website Leading Trader:

Subscribe to Alessio’s YouTube channel:

Follow Alessio on Twitter: @alessiorastani

Helpful Resources

  • New to cryptocurrency trading? Enhance your bitcoin trade trust by holding a demeanour during a Introduction to Bitcoin Trading guide.
  • Take a demeanour during a analysts’ trading forecasts for renouned markets and a tip trade opportunities in 2019.
  • At DailyFX we researched over 100.000 live IG Group accounts to find out a secrets of successful traders and published a commentary in a Traits of Successful Traders report.
  • [Podcast] Federal Reserve Bank insider, Danielle DiMartino Booth explains because she feels 2019 could be pivotal, in a latest podcast interview.

If we found this essay useful, we should follow a weekly podcasts. Whether we are looking for market analysis, trading education or interviews with obvious attention professionals, we have we covered.

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Italy Enters a Technical Recession, EUR/USD Recovery Halted

EUR Analysis and Talking Points

  • Italy confirms it is in a technical recession
  • Italy’s constrictive economy could re-open a bill predicament with a EU

For some-more in-depth research on EUR, review the code new Q1 2019 FX forecast guides

Italy confirms it is in a Technical Recession

The Italian economy contracts for a second entertain in a quarrel that means it has entered a technical recession, stalling a new EUR/USD rally. The monthly figure was hinted by Italian boss Giuseppe Conte yesterday, a day before a central release, as he mentioned that a Italian economy had substantially shrunk in a fourth quarter. The quarterly rate, a tumble of 0.2% (Exp. -0.1%) is not a large surprise, following Italy’s bill predicament with a EU in Oct and a idea that expansion is negligence in many economies around a world. Continuing weaker-than-expected mercantile information being expelled by Germany, joined with France’s private zone slack in a month of December, hinted that a Eurozone was expected to knowledge a slack in expansion in a final entertain of 2018, that is reliable by a Eurozone GDP figure announced today, a expansion of only 0.2% (Exp. 0.2%). After a announcement, EUR/USD was trade marginally reduce crude a new convene and hovering only next a 1.15 handle.

Italy’s constrictive economy could re-open a bill predicament with a EU

One of a expected implications of Italy’s constrictive economy is that it could re-open a bill brawl between Italy and a EU, whereby a latter might direct Italy to reduce a already revised necessity bill of 2.04 per cent of GDP (down from 2.4) that might in spin lead to serve increases in a widespread between a Italian 10-year bond produce and a German Bund, that act as a benchmark for emperor risk in a Eurozone.

IG Client SentimentCurrent view shows clients are net brief 54% on EUR/USD, as such contrarian indicator signals sojourn bullish.

Recommended Reading

Eurozone Debt Crisis: How to Trade Future Disasters – Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst and Editor

EURUSD PRICE CHART: 1 notation Time-Frame (Intraday)

Italy Enters a Technical Recession, EUR/USD Recovery Halted

Chart by IG


— Written by Daniela Sabin Hathorn, Junior Analyst