Month: September 2018

Yen, Stocks Eye NAFTA Volatility. USD/CAD Resuming Downtrend?

Asia Pacific Market Open – NAFTA Talks, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CAD

  • Canadian Dollar appreciated aggressively on GDP data, convene in bonds Friday
  • Asia Pacific trade wait weekend swell on NAFTA talks, confronting sensitivity next
  • USD/CAD competence be resuming downtrend, though downside movement is declining

See a study on a story of trade wars to learn how it competence change financial markets!

The Canadian Dollar outperformed opposite a vital counterparts on Friday, primarily increased by better-than-expected GDP growth. Canada’s economy grew 2.4% y/y in Jul that was faster than a 2.2% boost expected. Local front-end supervision bond yields rallied as a news crossed a wires, signaling firming BoC rate travel bets.

Adding to gains in a Canadian Dollar after on was a pickup in marketplace mood on Wall Street notwithstanding European benchmark bonds indexes mostly streamer reduce amidst Italian bill woes. Stocks and sentiment-linked crude oil prices rallied as a third entertain came to an end. This weighed opposite a haven-linked US Dollar that finished a day carefully aloft still.

There competence nonetheless be room for some-more CAD gains as a new entertain begins. This is given after marketplace tighten Friday, Mexico’s Economy Minister ldefonso Guajardosaid that a US and Canada told them that they competence solve NAFTA issues over a subsequent 48 hours (weekend). If this is indeed a box by Monday Asia Pacific trade, afterwards we competence see USD/CAD opening lower.

This competence also offer gains to APAC equities if marketplace mood improves as a result, triggering a ‘risk on’ trade dynamic. Such an outcome would bode ill for a anti-risk Japanese Yen, serve pulling USD/JPY to a May/July/November 2017 highs. Meanwhile a pro-risk Australian and New Zealand Dollars could gain and trade higher. However, should a NAFTA talks breakdown, than this competence go a other way.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USD/CAD prices have tumbled 1.03% on Friday that was a many in a singular day given May 30th, roughly 4 months ago. While a span has managed to tighten during a lowest given May, a lows achieved in Aug were not damaged (1.28876). Simultaneously, positive RSI divergence warns that downside movement is fading. Confirmation of a annulment of USD/CAD’s widespread uptrend from Feb to Jun would need serve closes underneath support, exposing 1.2729 – 1.27662 next.

USD/CAD Daily Chart

Yen, Stocks Eye NAFTA Volatility. USD/CAD Resuming Downtrend?

Chart combined in TradingView

US Trading Session

Yen, Stocks Eye NAFTA Volatility. USD/CAD Resuming Downtrend?

Asia Pacific Trading Session

Yen, Stocks Eye NAFTA Volatility. USD/CAD Resuming Downtrend?

** All times listed in GMT. See a full mercantile calendar here

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— Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To hit Daniel, use a comments territory next or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

Weekly Tech Outlook AUD/USD, EUR/AUD. Consolidation and Reversal

Talking Points – AUD/USD, EUR/AUD, Evening Star Candlestick Pattern

  • Despite bullish signs in AUD/USD, a Australian Dollar mislaid belligerent contra a greenback
  • AUD/USD prices competence have set themselves adult for converging as we conduct into Q4 next
  • Meanwhile, EUR/AUD prices competence resume forward on bearish acknowledgment around weekly chart

Have a doubt about what’s in store for Australian Dollar subsequent week? Join a Trading QA Webinarto ask it live!

AUD/USD Technical Outlook: Neutral

Despite a conduct and shoulders bullish annulment candlestick settlement in AUD/USD on a daily chart, a Australian Dollar mislaid belligerent opposite a US reflection final week. Resistance hold around 0.73106 that is a lows achieved behind in July. It eventually prevented a span from contrast a long-term forward trend line from Feb as well. With that in mind, a AUD/USD technical opinion will change to neutral next.

This is since a Australian Dollar s competence have set itself adult to enter converging mode in a week forward as a span oscillates between pivotal support and resistance. The former seems to be a operation between 0.7160 and 0.7145 that are a Dec and May 2016 lows respectively. The latter is a aforementioned Jul 2018 lows.

In a eventuality of a dermatitis to a downside, AUD/USD competence find a subsequent area of support during 0.70852 that now stands as this year’s low. Descending there would also nullify a conduct and shoulders formation. Meanwhile, a pull above insurgency exposes a Feb trend line followed by forward insurgency that is combined by joining a Jul and Aug highs.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Weekly Tech Outlook AUD/USD, EUR/AUD. Consolidation and Reversal

EUR/AUD Technical Outlook: Bearish

Meanwhile, a bearish technical opinion for EUR/AUD prices stays notwithstanding support holding adult on a daily chart. This is since when looking during a EUR/AUD weekly chart, swell was done serve to a downside after a arrangement of an evening star bearish annulment pattern. Analyzing weekly charts can offer insights to a some-more forward-looking opinion that competence cancel out near-term noise.

EUR/AUD Weekly Chart

Weekly Tech Outlook AUD/USD, EUR/AUD. Consolidation and Reversal

With that said, we are closely examination pivotal plane support on a EUR/AUD daily draft that is around 1.60587 as a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. This area has kept prices during brook on countless occasions in Sep including on a 4th, 19th and now a 28th. Breaking subsequent would expected offer a possibility for a span to resume a downtrend it began around a dusk star candle settlement progressing this month (also benefaction on a daily chart).

Such an outcome would place a 50% median as a subsequent aim during 1.59673 followed by a 61.8% retracement during 1.58759. Meanwhile, near-term insurgency competence be during 1.61717. Climbing above that afterwards exposes a Sep 2015 Feb 2016 highs during 1.62505. For updates on Australian Dollar prices, we competence follow me on chatter here during @ddubrovskyFX.

EUR/AUD Daily Chart

Weekly Tech Outlook AUD/USD, EUR/AUD. Consolidation and Reversal

** Charts combined in TradingView

Just removing started trading? See a beginners’ beam for FX traders to learn how we can request this in your strategy!

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— Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To hit Daniel, use a comments territory subsequent or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

Fourth Quarter Forecasts for Dollar, Euro, Oil, Equities, and More

The third entertain is now in a books, and a reconstruction of marketplace sensitivity and doubt around pivotal thematic influences carries over into a fourth entertain of 2018. With elemental issues around US-led trade wars, Brexit, a Italian government, Turkey, rising marketplace contagion, among others lingering, a final 3 months of a year should furnish opportunities opposite item classes.

See all of a DailyFX Trading Guides from a Quarterly Forecasts to a Top Trading Opportunities, How to Trade Event Risk, Building Confidence in Trading and so most more.

Fourth Quarter Forecasts for Dollar, Euro, Oil, Equities, and More

Dollar Feels Pressure of Its Trade Wars, Politics, Fed

The US Dollar has proven volatile in a months given US President Trump announced that “trade wars are good, and easy to win.” It is probable investors omit this huge weight until it starts to have a discernible impact on a economy – though suppositional markets frequency wait.

Euro Stabilization in Q3 May Offer Base for a Rally in Q4

Insofar as we hold a neutral opinion for a Euro in a past quarter, we are somewhat some-more confident on a Euro’s intensity for a final 3 months. Trading conditions are approaching to sojourn choppy, though directionally, Euro rates should be inequitable to a topside.

Pound Traders Will Find Brexit Remains a Driver

As we enter a fourth entertain of 2018, a British Pound is picking itself adult from a lows allied to those plunged in summer 2017, and starting to re-coup some of this year’s losses. The overarching motorist behind Sterling in a past few months – Brexit – is really expected to sojourn by a finish of a year.

Yen Still Lacks Interest Rate Support, Haven Bids Will Endure

The Japanese Yen remained underneath transparent vigour opposite a US Dollar by a third quarter, with USD/JPY attack highs not seen given mid-January. However, while interest-rate differentials between a dual clearly benefaction a Yen during transparent disadvantage, there will be most some-more to a trade as 2018 bows out.

Gold Selloff Likely to Continue as Fed Proceeds with Rate Hikes

Faith in a Federal Reserve’s joining to lifting rates has so continued to import down bullion prices. Barring an mercantile fall that army a Fed to retreat course, bullion is expected to continue a downward trend via a fourth quarter.

Global Oil Demand in Question as OPEC Output Falters and US Shale Booms

The opinion for tellurian expansion has been called into doubt in new months as rising markets crawl underneath outmost pressures and grown economies rivet in trade wars. The opinion for wanton direct is concerning – and thereby so too is a commodity’s price.

Global Stocks’ Strength Masks Vulnerabilities

Global share prices accelerated ceiling in a third quarter, building on a miscarry started in a preceding 3 months. One competence interpretation stability opposite such contingency speaks to robust underlying strength, creation delay likely. Still, vicious vulnerabilities are most too vivid to ignore; a tellurian economy has decelerated in 2018.

US Dollar Q4 Forecast: Dollar Feels Pressure of Its Trade Wars, Politics, Fed

The US Dollar has proven flighty in a months given US President Trump announced that “trade wars are good, and easy to win.” It is probable investors omit this huge weight until it starts to have a discernible impact on a economy – though suppositional markets frequency wait. Traders will be forced to import concerns about a US-China trade fight with a awaiting for tighter financial process from a Federal Reserve. The Fed’s intentions have been good telegraphed for years. Therefore, while a full border of their ultimate tightening proram has not been totally labelled in; most of a brazen value is expected accounted for in a stream levels.

DXY Index Price Chart: Weekly Timeframe (October 2015 to Sep 2018) (Chart 1)

US Dollar Q4 Forecast: Dollar Feels Pressure of Its Trade Wars, Politics, Fed

As we pierce into a tighten of what’s turn a flighty year for a US Dollar, we’re faced with dual probable trends to work with. Either a 13-month down-trend that lasted into this Feb as a Dollar forsaken by -15%, even as a financial backdrop was clearly tiled in a US Dollar’s favor. Or, we have a two-month up-trend that’s mostly stalled out while flagging a array of bearish relapse signals via Q3.As we pierce into Q4, a former seems a some-more appealing trail forward, quite given a elemental context with that this pierce has taken place.

See a finish Q4’18 US Dollar foresee as good as forecasts for a other vital currencies, equities, Gold, and Oil.

— Written by John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist and James Stanley, Strategist

Euro Q4 Forecast: Euro Stabilization in Q3 May Offer Base for a Rally in Q4

After determined offered in a second quarter, a Euro was means to stabilise by a third quarter. Contributing to that change was a market’s faith of fortitude – during slightest , on a trail to fortitude – for concerns over a region’s growth, a arena of European Central Bank financial policy, and a budgetary skeleton of a populist Italian government. Insofar as we hold a neutral opinion for a Euro in a past quarter, we are somewhat some-more confident on a Euro’s intensity for a final 3 months. Trading conditions are approaching to sojourn choppy, yet directionally, Euro rates should be inequitable to a topside.

EUR/USD Price Chart: Daily Timeframe (September 2017 to Sep 2018) (Chart 1)

Euro Q4 Forecast: Euro Stabilization in Q3 May Offer Base for a Rally in Q4

Recently, EUR/USD finished a bearish incentive call from a Feb 2018-high to a Aug 2018-low. Conversely, a three-year adult wave finished in Apr for EUR/CHF; therefore, expect a multi-quarter down call during vast grade to work down towards 1.0800 over time. Meanwhile, the Elliott Wave design for EUR/JPY has muddied a bit, and the converging in EUR/GBP hints we are in a vast Elliott Wave triangle settlement that might take several some-more months to complete. The EUR-complex foresee is longer-term bearish, yet near-term appreciation might take place in Q4’18.

See a finish Q4’18 Euro foresee as good as forecasts for a other vital currencies, equities, Gold, and Oil.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist and Jeremy Wagner, Head Forex Trading Instructor, CEWA-M

Oil Q4 Forecast: Global Oil Demand in Question as OPEC Output Falters and US Shale Booms

The opinion for tellurian enlargement has been called into doubt in new months as rising markets crawl underneath outmost pressures and grown economies rivet in trade wars. On tip of a already-enacted $250 billion tab, a US is weighing a serve $267 billion in tariffs on China. The Trump administration has also suggested it might set a sights on Japan. Similarly, NAFTA stays unused notwithstanding a shared understanding between a United States and Mexico as a deadline looms. With such a extensive quell on mercantile expansion, a opinion for wanton direct is concerning – and thereby so too is a commodity’s price.

Crude Oil Price Chart: Weekly Timeframe (October 2007 to Sep 2018) (Chart 1)

Oil Q4 Forecast: Global Oil Demand in Question as OPEC Output Falters and US Shale Booms

$71 on WTI seems to be a indicate of row for a fourth quarter. Though there might not be a decisive level, a WTI’s pull above $70 seems to lift a hazard concerns from Donald Trump, in spin heading a President to bellow during OPEC around Twitter to “get prices down now!”One thing that would “get prices down now!” would be a significantly stronger US Dollar, that tends to have tellurian deflationary forces, and is mostly initial seen by reduce line and a aloft USD/CNH. US producers continue to supplement rigs yet per Baker Hughes, a series of active oil rigs has usually recovered 40% of a 2014 high of 1,592 to a 2016 low of 330.

See a finish Q4’18 Oil forecast as good as forecasts for a other vital currencies, equities, and Gold.

— Written by Tyler Yell, CMT, Analyst and Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst




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