FX Setups for a Week of Sep 3, 2018: USD during a Decision Point

Talking Points:

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US Dollar Primed as End of Summer Months Draws Near

It’s been a bustling summer opposite a FX space, and as we demeanour to breeze down a summer months a series of themes sojourn of interest. Monday is a holiday in a United States in tact of Labor Day, and after a extended weekend we’ll lapse to a marketplace full of applicable themes and equipment of interest.

In final week’s FX Setups, we looked into bearish delay possibilities in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD. And while EUR/USD put in a insurgency check during a area that we were following, GBP/USD put in an assertive topside slice that saw a plea start around a 1.3000 handle. As we discussed progressing today, this puts Cable in a mark where bullish strategies can sojourn appealing as we travel into September; while a awaiting of bearish EUR/USD delay remains, as well; meaning we have setups on possibly side of a US Dollar as a finish of summer trade quick approaches.

US Dollar Four-Hour Price Chart: Back Above 95.00 After Grind during Aug Lows

us dollar 4 hour cost draft usd

For subsequent week – a 95.00 spin stays as a large area of significance for USD price action. If we do see prices reason above this level, bullish strategies can be adored and this can be sought out in possibly EUR/USD or NZD/USD, as we demeanour during below.

But – if prices tumble back-below 95.00 and continue to head-lower, afterwards we have a intensity for a bigger-picture relapse in a Greenback, and this creates a topside of GBP/USD as an appealing idea. And as we looked during final week, this could even spin a awaiting of longer-term bullish delay in EUR/USD as a applicable thesis should insurgency during 1.1750 eventually get taken-out.

Bearish EUR/USD on Hold Below 1.1750

This has been a fast-moving span in a month of August, and as we pierce into Sep a large doubt is that trend will continue to hold…

The initial half of a month was marked by a delay in a offered vigour that had turn hackneyed in a month of May. That May sell-off was driven by jitters around Italian politics, and a Aug sell-off came from fears around bearing to a ongoing conditions in Turkey. Those fears around Turkey took a step behind in a second-half of a month usually to re-emerge in a headlines in a loss days of August. But – resistance has hold in a pivotal area, and this keeps a doorway open for serve down-side in a span until those before highs get taken-out.

EUR/USD Four-Hour Price Chart: Resistance Reaction

eurusd eur/usd 4 hour cost chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

Bullish GBP/USD on Hold Above 1.2844

A bit of vigour was private from a bearish thesis in a British Pound this week, and while that unfolding is still really new and a topside pierce still developing, this does open a doorway to a intensity for strength in a banking as we pierce into September.

Fears around Hard-Brexit have compelled bullish runs in a span for a past 4 months; behaving as a consistent source of vigour as prices continued with varying patterns of lower-lows and lower-highs. But when a EU’s Chief Negotiator, Michael Barnier, announced progressing this week that a EU would be open to a post-Brexit partnership with a UK, that vigour was private and GBP fast rallied.

As we wrote during a time, when a backdrop shifts, so should a trader. And while we’d looked during bullish positions dual weeks ago, we’d flipped to a bearish position entrance into this week, looking for insurgency to play-out during a before topside target. And while it looked like that thesis competence play-well entrance into Wednesday, price action was roiled by a early-morning proclamation from Mr. Barnier and GBP/USD shortly moved-up to plea a 1.3000 spin on a pair.

We’ve taken that before topside target/resistance area and re-purposed it as higher-low support potential. That thesis stays of seductiveness as we pierce into subsequent week; and as prolonged as GBP/USD stays above a before swing-low of 1.2844, bullish strategies can sojourn of interest.

GBP/USD Four-Hour Price Chart

gbpusd gbp/usd 4 hour cost chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

To review more:

Are we looking for longer-term research on a U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts for Q1 have a territory for any vital currency, and we also offer a engorgement of resources on USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay adult with near-term positioning around a IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

Forex Trading Resources

DailyFX offers a engorgement of tools, indicators and resources to assistance traders. For those looking for trade ideas, a IG Client Sentiment shows a positioning of sell traders with tangible live trades and positions. Our trading guides move a DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and a Top Trading Opportunities; and a real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from a DailyFX team. And if you’re looking for real-time analysis, a DailyFX Webinars offer countless sessions any week in that we can see how and because we’re looking during what we’re looking at.

If you’re looking for educational information, a New to FX guide is there to assistance new(er) traders while a Traits of Successful Traders research is built to assistance whet a ability set by focusing on risk and trade management.

— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

Brazilian Real and Indian Rupee Stall Decline After GDP Figure Release

Talking Points:

  • Brazilian QoQ GDP was 0.2% contra an approaching 0.1%, year-over-year GDP was 1.0%
  • India saw clever growth, posting 8.2% in a many new quarter
  • The information releases yield some irresolution for uneasy rising marketplace currencies amid predicament concerns

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After uninterrupted days of weakness for rising markets, a world’s fifth and seventh largest economies by GDP looked to case a broader decrease with certain GDP data. Due to their size, a dual countries lift poignant weight in a rising marketplace basket and their expansion will certainly beget some certain view to negate a issues confronting a basket as a whole.

Brazil GDP Delivers nearby Target

As for a specifics, Brazil’s Q2 quarter-over-quarter GDP review in during 0.2%. A rather low figure for tellurian standards. According to a World Bank, tellurian GDP was 3.1% in 2017. Still, Brazils 0.2% GDP expansion surpassed a approaching 0.1%. Year-over-year GDP came in next a approaching 1.1% during 1.0%. South America’s largest republic has been beleaguered by a trucker strike and domestic concerns as a presidential choosing looms. Coupled with domestic concerns, informal developments like Venezuela’s hyperinflation also worked to import down a Brazilian economy. Following a information release, a Brazilian genuine saw a postpone from new troubles and gained belligerent contra a dollar.

USD/BRL Price Chart 10-Minute Time Frame, Aug 30th – 31st

Brazilian Real and Indian Rupee Stall Decline After GDP Figure Release

The genuine was adult 0.73% contra a greenback, trade nearby 4.135 during a time of this article. The news is a acquire expansion that might assistance to rage waste by a genuine should emerging marketplace concerns continue.

Indian GDP Surpasses All Expectations

Shattering tellurian standards, Indian GDP review in during a towering 8.2%. The figure outlines a top expansion in dual years, a strongest given a initial entertain of 2016. The information also surpassed domestic expectations of 7.5% growth.

USD/INR Price Chart 10-Minute Time Frame, Aug 30th – 31st

Brazilian Real and Indian Rupee Stall Decline After GDP Figure Release

Again, a clever figure generated a brief convene in a rupee contra a dollar. Moving forward, marketplace participants will take note of a clever GDP figure though it might not be adequate to totally stop a rupee’s decline. Although a rupee traded around 71.085 during a time of this article, Friday morning saw a rupee trade during a lowest turn contra a dollar ever nearby 71.600.

Strong GDP Unlikely to Stop Broader Emerging Market Decline

Although both Brazil and India delivered clever results, a emanate rising markets face is incomparable than information releases can counteract. Trade wars, sanctions, and other headwinds have smashed rising markets. The high decrease in currencies like a Argentine peso and a Turkish lira have widespread debility and regard to countries that were differently on clever footing. Collectively, a new debility is adequate to drag down even a strongest rising markets like India.

DailyFX forecasts on a accumulation of currencies such as a US Dollar or the Yen are accessible from a DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you’re looking to urge your trade approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you’re looking for an introduction to a Forex market, check out a New to FX Guide.

–Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Bearish AUD/USD Series Warns of Further Losses Ahead of RBA Meeting

Australian Dollar Talking Points

AUD/USD fast approaches a 2018-low (0.7203) as a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) strikes a discreet tinge forward of a subsequent assembly on Sep 4, and new cost movement highlighting a risk for a serve decrease in a sell rate as it extends a array of reduce highs lows from progressing this week.

Image of daily change for vital currencies

Bearish AUD/USD Series Warns of Further Losses Ahead of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Meeting

Image of daily change for audusd

The RBA’s updated corporate devise for 2018/2019 appears to be boring on a Australian dollar as a executive bank warns ‘high debt levels could mystify destiny financial process decisions by creation a economy reduction volatile to shocks.’

Image of rba executive money rate

It seems as yet a RBA is in no rush a lift a executive money rate (OCR) off of a record-low as ‘household income has been flourishing slowly and debt levels are high,’ and Governor Philip Lowe Co. might continue to validate a wait-and-see proceed forward of 2019 election as ‘the low spin of seductiveness rates is stability to support a Australian economy.

With that said, a RBA might implement a Sep assembly to tame bets for aloft borrowing-costs, and a doubt surrounding a fiscal opinion interconnected with a some-more of a same from Governor Lowe Co. might continue to corrupt a appeal of a Australian dollar as a executive bank keeps a doorway open to serve support a economy. In turn, a broader opinion for AUD/USD stays slanted to a downside as both cost and a Relative Strength Index (RSI) continue to lane a bearish trends from progressing this year, with a Sep opening operation mostly in concentration as a sell rate comes adult opposite near-term support. Sign adult and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an event to plead intensity trade setups.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Image of audusd daily chart

  • Recent array of reduce highs lows raises a risk for a serve decrease in AUD/USD, with a tighten subsequent a 0.7180 (61.8% retracement) to 0.7230 (61.8% expansion) segment opening adult a subsequent downside area of seductiveness around 0.7090 (78.6% retracement) to 0.7110 (78.6% retracement).
  • However, another unsuccessful try to break/close subsequent a Fibonacci overlie might beget range-bound conditions, with a initial topside jump entrance in around 0.7320 (50% expansion) to 0.7340 (61.8% retracement) followed by a 0.7400 (38.2% expansion) handle.

Image of DailyFX mercantile calendar

Additional Trading Resources

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— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter during @DavidJSong.

Near-term Setups in EUR/USD and USD/CHF

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EUR/USD 120min Price Chart

EUR/USD Price Chart - 120min Timeframe

We’ve been tracking a reversal in Euro for a past dual weeks with a ‘bottom line’ for a many new EUR/USD scalp report observant that rice had, “extended aloft for a third uninterrupted day and from a trade standpoint, we’re looking for near-term debility to offer some-more auspicious long-entries while within this near-term formation. Look for a bigger greeting on a convene into pivotal near-term insurgency during 1.1780/90.”

Price purebred a high this week during 1.1734 before violation (and retesting) channel support late in a week. The evident risk stays for serve waste though we’re looking for a near-term low streamer into a start of a month. Interim support rest during 1.1568 and IF Euro is indeed streamer higher, waste should be singular by 1.1510/30 (bullish invalidation). Resistance still 1.1691 with a crack above 1.1790 still indispensable to fuel a successive ‘leg’ aloft in price. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth relapse of this setup and more.

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USD/CHF Daily Price Chart

USD/CHF Price Chart - Daily Timeframe

We highlighted a potential for a dermatitis trade in Swissy progressing this month with a successive decrease in USD/CHF holding out targets during 9846 and 9784 this week before stability lower. Price rebounded off a reduce 50-line currently with movement in oversold territory.

The risk is for some liberation here though streamer into a start of a month, I’m looking for depletion on a pierce towards 9733/44 for probable re-entry on a short-side targeting connection support a 9629. Ultimately, a crack above a sliding parallel (red) / Jun low during 9788 (bearish invalidation) would be indispensable to change a concentration behind a topside.

USD/CHF Trader Sentiment

USD/CHF Trader Positioning

  • A outline of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long USD/CHF – a ratio stands during -1.88 (65.3% of traders are long) –bearishreading
  • Traders have remained net-long given August 21st; cost has changed 1.6% reduce given then
  • The commission of traders net-long is now a top given March 21st
  • Long positions are2.3% reduce than yesterday and 26.5% aloft from final week
  • Short positions are 18.9% reduce than yesterday and 22.6% reduce from final week
  • We typically take a contrarian perspective to throng sentiment, and a fact traders are net-long suggests USD/CHF prices might continue to fall. Traders are serve net-long than yesterday and final week, and a multiple of stream positioning and new changes gives us a stronger USD/CHF-bearish contrarian trade disposition from a view standpoint.

For a finish relapse of Michael’s trade strategy, examination his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

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-Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex or hit him during mboutros@dailyfx.com

Equities Forecast: DAX Eyes Jul Lows, Dow Jones Trend Remains Up

Equity Analysis and News

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: Trend Remains Moderately Bullish
  • DAX: Bearish Sequence Brings Jul Lows in Focus

Dow Jones Industrial Average: Trend Remains Moderately Bullish

Another week of gains for a Dow Jones with a index now hovering around a 26,000 level. Eyes are on for a weekly tighten above 26,000, that will expected endorse that a uptrend in a index is still intact. Alongside this, a Dow Jones is still personification locate adult relations to a US counterparts, that have strike record highs.

Support for a Dow Jones is seen during 25850, whereby a 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of a equity marketplace improvement seen in Q1 18. Consequently, a Dow Jones stays tolerably bullish above 76.4% Fib level, notwithstanding a marketplace jitters sparked by a boost in trade fight tensions.

Dow Jones Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (February-September 2018)

Equities Forecast: DAX Eyes Jul Lows, Dow Jones Trend Remains Up

DAX: Bearish Sequence Brings Jul Lows in Focus

Gains in a DAX petered out after rejecting a trendline from a Jun high, while insurgency during 12643, that outlines a 50% lie turn from a 13184-12102 tumble also hold firm. Momentum indicators advise that a disposition is on a downside. Support during 12350 has tempered an prolongation to a new waste for now, however, a organisation mangle next could expected move a Jul lows during 12100 behind into focus.

DAX Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (April-September 2018)

Equities Forecast: DAX Eyes Jul Lows, Dow Jones Trend Remains Up


TheIG Client Sentiment Indicator shows56.5% of traders are net-long. We typically take a contrarian perspective to throng sentiment, and a fact traders are net-long suggests Germany 30 prices might continue to fall.


Whether we are a new or gifted trader, we have several resources accessible to assistance you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, methodical and educational webinars hold daily, trading guides to assistance we urge trade performance, and one privately for those who are new to forex.

— Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To hit Justin, email him during Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook: Building For The Next Leg Higher

GBPUSD Technical Highlights, Prices and Analysis

  • Daily draft shows GBPUSD sitting in a one cent range.
  • Four-hour draft is sitting on a cluster of relocating averages that might yield ceiling momentum.
  • Retail traders are long, and view stays positive.

We have recently expelled a Q3 Trading Forecasts for a far-reaching operation of Currencies and Commodities, including GBPUSD with a elemental and medium-term tenure technical outlook.

GBPUSD retook a 1.3000 ‘headline’ spin and has now only faded reduce though another, stronger, try to spin this into new support looks likely. The span also lay nearby a tip of 20- and 50-day cloud and need to transparent this to pull serve ahead. The RSI indicator is during a multi-month high, nonetheless branch lower, and has copiousness of room to pull aloft before it enters overbought territory. The tip of a Aug 2 ‘bear candle’ during 1.31290 needs to be damaged to endorse serve strength.

GBPUSD Daily Price Chart (January – Aug 31, 2018)

GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook: Building For The Next Leg Higher

A demeanour during a four-hour GBPUSD draft also confirms a a span stranded between 1.2957 and 1.3043 nonetheless a downside is being probed. Initial support should be supposing by a cluster of relocating averages now between 1.2907 and 1.2963. The short-term uptrend from a Aug 15 low stays in place and coincides with a bottom of a relocating normal cluster. Support is likley between 1.2800 and 1.2850 if a reduce relocating normal is damaged and sealed below.

GBPUSD Four-Hour Chart (August 6 – Aug 31, 2018)

GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook: Building For The Next Leg Higher

GBPUSD Client Sentiment

The IG Client Sentiment Indicatorshows us that retail traders are 64.7% net-long GBPUSD, routinely a bearish contrarian signal. However, recent changes in daily and weekly sentiment advise that a stream GBPUSD cost trend might shortly retreat aloft notwithstanding a fact traders sojourn net-long.

GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook: Building For The Next Leg Higher

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— Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

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