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CANADIAN DOLLAR OUTLOOK: USD/CAD PRICE ACTION PIVOTS LOWER AFTER CLASHING WITH 100-DAY MOVING AVERAGE

• USD/CAD cost reverses reduce as a US Dollar surrenders new gains behind to a Loonie
• Canadian Dollar bulls stood their belligerent nearby a 1.3400-level and 100-day moving average
• A liberation in marketplace view seems to have given postponement to this month’s convene by USD/CAD

USD/CAD cost movement is entrance behind underneath vigour and brings to light a important intraday annulment by a US Dollar. Spot USD/CAD was pulling aloft with a broader US Dollar Index during early Thursday trade, though shortly after a opening bell on Wall Street, markets done a clever bid to stabilise a selloff opposite risk assets.

The transparent alleviation in merchant view after SP 500 bears unsuccessful to take out vital support was echoed by a pullback in a US Dollar. The US Dollar generally strengthens during episodes of risk hatred and typically weakens when ardour for risk is flush. This is given a USD is mostly noticed as a top safe-haven currency.

USD/CAD PRICE CHART: 4-HOUR TIME FRAME (31 AUGUST TO 24 SEPTEMBER 2020)

Chart by @RichDvorakFX

USD/CAD cost movement led a midday annulment reduce by a broader US Dollar following a rejecting of a 1.3400-handle. This technical resistance turn unresolved beyond USD/CAD is roughly highlighted by a 100-day relocating normal and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of a bearish leg available from May by August.

Downward vigour on USD/CAD has accelerated given US Dollar bulls unsuccessful to take out this large technical barrier. That said, mark prices have so distant hold a before event lows and could demeanour to a 1.3300-handle underpinned by lows printed progressing this week. Breaching this intensity area of irresolution could inspire USD/CAD bears to make a pull toward resistance-turned-support remarkable by a 08 Sep and 16 Sep pitch highs.

USD/CAD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (08 MAY TO 24 SEPTEMBER 2020)

Chart by @RichDvorakFX

A back-test of a 50-day relocating normal somewhat above 1.3200 is another intensity support section that could see an liquid of direct for USD/CAD. As such, a major banking pair bark behind currently could simply marker adult to be a healthy postponement in a short-term bullish trend joining a fibre of aloft lows this month. The US Dollar has been ripping aloft via Sep as markets swoon amid resurgent volatility, and this is a potentially bullish USD/CAD thesis that looks expected to linger.

Keep Reading: US Dollar Extends Rally as Global PMI Data Fans Volatility

— Written by Rich Dvorak, Analyst for DailyFX.com

Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time marketplace insight

IBEX 35 Forecast, COVID, Economic Outlook – Talking Points

• IBEX 35 cost movement breaks down amid new marketplace volatility
• Spain’s rising COVID infection rates might drag index offer
• Index faces bad technical setup in a near-term

The IBEX 35 Index pennyless down progressing this week along with a reflection European indices amid a hitch of tellurian risk-aversion, as a rate of Covid infections increases opposite most of Western Europe. Selling vigour has eased in new days for a IBEX, though stream cost movement appears to lend a technical advantage for bears in a short-term. Currently a index sits scarcely 7 percent reduce for September.

IBEX 35 Index (15-Min Price Chart)

Chart combined with TradingView

Compared to Its informal peers, Spain continues to humour from an outsized rate of infections. The 14-day accumulative box count per 100k is during 320.0, good above France, Germany, and a U.K., according to a ECDC. Madrid, Spain’s collateral city, recently reenacted prejudiced lockdown measures and called for troops support to accelerate containment efforts.

That said, relations underperformance in a Spanish index might continue given a outsized gait of infections. The IBEX’s opening year-to-date stands during -27% contra France’s CAC 40 during -17%, and Germany’s DAX during -1%. Adding to a deteriorating pathogen numbers, Markit Economics’ Flash Eurozone Services PMI Activity Index fell to a 4-month low for September.

IBEX 35, DAX, EU 50 Indexes (Daily Price Chart)

Chart combined with TradingView

Turning to a technical setup, this week’s slip brought cost subsequent a new multi-month low of 6788.9 set on Aug 3. The turn coincides closely with a 23.6% Fibonacci level. This before indicate of support will expected act as insurgency on a subsequent upswing.

IBEX 35 Index (Daily Price Chart)

Chart combined with TradingView

Moreover, given Aug cost movement pinged a downward trending 50-day relocating normal several times while environment reduce lows. This relocating normal will expected offer as a subsequent pivotal technical turn to overcome should bulls conduct to better a formerly mentioned Fibonacci level. For now, prices might connect in a operation shaped from late Mar by mid-May. A mangle subsequent this operation would see a index behind nearby a 2003 lows.

–Written by Thomas Westwater, Contributor for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Thomas on Twitter @FxWestwater

Gold Price Outlook:

• After pang high waste Monday, gold declines have continued, melancholy delegate support
• Still, a elemental opinion for a changed steel has remained constant
• Thus, a longer-term opinion stays constructive though a shorter-term opinion has enervated

Gold Price Forecast Sours as Losses Mount

After pang a estimable decrease on Monday, bullion has continued reduce as a week has progressed. As a result, a shorter-term technical landscape has been upended as several levels of support have been broken. While a elemental army during play sojourn unchanged, a technical developments have severely eroded gold’s near-term cost outlook.

Gold (XAU/USD) Price Chart: 4 – Hour Time Frame (June 2020 – Sep 2020)

We recently highlighted intensity support nearby $1,862 if bullion debility persisted. Evidently, a area has offering a jot of support, though a brief duration underneath a line competence have caused irrevocable repairs to a technical level. Consequently, a trail reduce has expected been done easier for bears and they competence demeanour to extend reduce still. Suffice it to say, support underneath a $1,862 area is rather meagre until $1,800.

View a Podcast Episode on Risk Trading and Safe Havens

The $1,800 symbol roughly coincides with a metal’s swing-highs in 2011 and 2012. Should it fail, a array of lower-lows will be continued, usually weakening bullion further. Therefore, $1,800 competence be noticed as a “line in a sand” in a entrance days as it looks to sentinel off an even deeper retracement.

Gold Price Chart: Weekly Time Frame (January 2010 – Sep 2020)

Regardless, a longer-term opinion for bullion from a elemental standpoint has remained constant. With that in mind, new waste competence volume to healthy converging in a bigger picture, though they are not to be underestimated over shorter time horizons as bullion appears increasingly exposed during this stage. In a meantime, follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter for updates and analysis.

–Written by Peter Hanks, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

France’s prolongation certainty softened more-than-expected in Sep to a top turn in 6 months, consult information from a statistical bureau INSEE showed on Thursday. The prolongation certainty indicator rose to 96 from 93 in August. Economists had foresee a measure of 95. The latest reading was a top given March, when it was during 98, and changed closer to a long-term normal of 100.

INSEE attributed a latest alleviation especially to a boost in a balances of opinion on past prolongation and altogether order-books. The alleviation was tempered by a pointy tumble in a change of opinion on personal prolongation prospects.

The indicators for past and approaching practice continued their rebound. Separately, INSEE reported that a altogether business meridian index rose to 92 in Sep from 90 in August. The medium alleviation in a index was attributed to a arise in a balances of opinion on a activity developments in a final 3 months, in services, prolongation and building construction. This was partially equivalent by a decrease in a balances on a ubiquitous opinion of activity in services and on personal activity prospects in services and in manufacturing.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Inch Up To 870,000 In Week Ended 9/19

Canadian Average Weekly Employee Earnings Little Changed At C$1,118 In Jul